Discover Current Player Trends for Mariners vs Giants – 4/5/25

Seattle Mariners

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San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants and Seattle Mariners prepare for their matchup on April 5, 2025, the Giants come in riding high with a 6-1 record this season. In contrast, the Mariners are struggling at 3-5, reflecting a disappointing start. The Giants recently faced the Mariners, winning the first game of the series, and they aim to continue their strong performance at Oracle Park.

Robbie Ray is set to take the mound for San Francisco. Although his 5.06 ERA is concerning, his 3.95 SIERA indicates he might have been unlucky, suggesting a potential for improvement. He projects to pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs. With a solid strikeout rate of 6.8, Ray could prove effective against a Mariners offense that ranks as the 45th best in MLB, showing just how ineffective they have been this season.

On the opposing side, Seattle will start Bryce Miller, who has struggled with a 4.76 ERA and a 0-1 record this year. His projections indicate he may allow 2.5 earned runs over approximately 5.4 innings, but with a below-average strikeout rate of 4.6, he could be vulnerable against the Giants’ lineup. While the Giants’ offense ranks a disappointing 31st overall, they have managed to hit a respectable 13th in home runs, showing they can capitalize on any mistakes from Miller.

With the Giants boasting the best bullpen in MLB and the Mariners’ bullpen ranked 26th, San Francisco appears to have the advantage as they aim to extend their lead in this tightly contested series. The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, hinting at a potentially close matchup where every run matters.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryce Miller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Bryce Miller’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (47.8% compared to 40.6% last year) figures to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  The San Francisco Giants have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so J.P. Crawford can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• It may be sensible to expect positive regression for the Seattle Mariners offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 8th-unluckiest offense in the league since the start of last season.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Robbie Ray – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Checking in at the 97th percentile, Robbie Ray recorded a 15.5% Swinging Strike percentage since the start of last season.
  Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
• Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Extreme groundball batters like Wilmer Flores generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Bryce Miller.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen projects as the 4th-best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 79 games (+8.02 Units / 7% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 53 away games (+15.40 Units / 26% ROI)
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Heliot Ramos has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 games (+8.30 Units / 106% ROI)