Discover Current Player Trends for Guardians vs White Sox – Friday July 11, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Chicago White Sox

As the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians prepare for their matchup on July 11, 2025, both teams are looking to bounce back from disappointing seasons. The White Sox currently sit at 31-62, struggling to find consistency, while the Guardians are hovering around .500 with a record of 43-48. This game marks the second of a double-header, and the Guardians will be hoping to capitalize on their recent success, having won the first game against the White Sox.

On the mound, Chicago will rely on Jonathan Cannon, who has had a challenging season with a 3-7 record and an average ERA of 4.50. Cannon’s advanced rankings reflect his struggles, as he sits at #239 among MLB starters, indicating he’s among the least effective pitchers in the league. He projects to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs, but his tendency to give up hits and walks could be problematic against a Guardians lineup in need of a spark.

Cleveland counters with Gavin Williams, who has been solid this year with a 5-4 record and a commendable 3.61 ERA. While his xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate, Williams still projects to deliver a quality outing, averaging 5.5 innings pitched and allowing 2.6 earned runs. With a strikeout projection of 5.4 batters, he has the potential to keep the White Sox’s struggling offense at bay.

Offensively, the White Sox rank dead last in MLB, sitting at #30 in both team batting average and overall offensive production. In contrast, the Guardians, while not stellar, rank #28 in offensive performance, giving them a slight edge in this matchup. With the Guardians favored at -140, the projections suggest they should have the upper hand, especially if their best hitters continue to perform well. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting a balanced expectation for scoring.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  Gavin Williams is an extreme groundball pitcher (42.7% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field — the #3 HR venue among all stadiums — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Typically, hitters like Jose Ramirez who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Jonathan Cannon.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Cleveland Guardians have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Bo Naylor, Will Wilson, Nolan Jones).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Jonathan Cannon – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  With 8 batters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Jonathan Cannon encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Luis Robert – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+130)
  Luis Robert Jr. is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago White Sox bullpen projects as the 4th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 59 games (+8.55 Units / 13% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 53 of their last 91 games (+10.84 Units / 10% ROI)
• Angel Martinez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-105/-125)
  Angel Martinez has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.80 Units / 59% ROI)