Discover Current Player Trends for Guardians vs Tigers – Friday May 23, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers will host the Cleveland Guardians at Comerica Park on May 23, 2025, in the second game of their series. The Tigers are currently enjoying a strong season with a record of 33-18, placing them firmly in contention in the American League Central. In contrast, the Guardians sit at 27-22, having recently secured a shutout victory over the Tigers by a score of 7-0 in their last matchup on May 22, 2025.

On the mound, the Tigers are projected to start Jackson Jobe, who has a perfect 4-0 record this season despite being ranked as the 197th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Jobe’s ERA stands at 4.12, indicating that while he has had some luck this year, he may not sustain this level of performance. He projects to pitch 5.2 innings and allow approximately 2.4 earned runs, but he may struggle with allowing too many hits and walks, which could be a concern against a Guardians offense that ranks 22nd overall in the league.

The Guardians will counter with Slade Cecconi, who has had a rough start to the season with a 0-1 record and an ERA of 5.40. However, projections suggest he might perform better than his stats indicate, as he has a favorable xFIP of 1.33, hinting at some bad luck. Cecconi’s high strikeout rate of 40.0% could pose problems for a Tigers lineup that has struck out frequently this season, ranking 5th in MLB in strikeouts.

With the Tigers’ offense ranking 6th overall and their bullpen sitting 3rd, they have the tools to bounce back from their recent defeat. The betting markets reflect this potential, as the Tigers’ moneyline is set at -120, indicating confidence in their ability to win this matchup.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  Slade Cecconi is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #23 HR venue among all major league parks in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Daniel Schneemann – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  This season, Daniel Schneemann has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 98.8 mph compared to last year’s 90.5 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen ranks as the 10th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Jackson Jobe – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  The Cleveland Guardians have 8 batters in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against Jackson Jobe today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Javier Baez tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Slade Cecconi.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Trey Sweeney – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Trey Sweeney hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 2nd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 51 games (+12.88 Units / 22% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-105)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 38 games (+6.40 Units / 15% ROI)
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-220)
  Javier Baez has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 54% ROI)