San Francisco Giants
Athletics
(-120/+100)+155
The Oakland Athletics will host the San Francisco Giants on July 5, 2025, in the second game of their interleague matchup at Sutter Health Park. The Athletics are struggling this season with a record of 37-53, while the Giants are performing better at 47-42. In their last encounter, the Athletics fell short against the Giants, which adds pressure to their upcoming game.
Luis Severino is projected to start for the Athletics, bringing with him a dismal 2-9 record and a 5.09 ERA this season. His performance has been characterized by an average outing, with projections suggesting he could pitch around 5.6 innings and give up 3.3 earned runs, which could spell trouble against a solid Giants lineup. Despite his performance, advanced stats indicate he has faced some bad luck as evidenced by his FIP of 4.31, suggesting potential for improvement.
On the other hand, the Giants will counter with Logan Webb, an elite pitcher ranked 5th in MLB, boasting a 2.61 ERA and a 7-6 record this season. Webb’s ability to pitch effectively for 6.6 innings while allowing just 2.3 earned runs showcases his prowess on the mound. His projected strikeouts of 7.4 indicate he could dominate a struggling Athletics offense that ranks a mediocre 13th overall in the league.
Interestingly, the Athletics have the 1st ranked bullpen, which could be pivotal if Severino can keep the game close early on. The Giants, despite a weak offensive ranking of 24th, have been known to capitalize on opposing pitchers’ weaknesses. With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs, the expectations are set for a competitive matchup.
Given the current betting landscape, with the Athletics listed as underdogs at +160 and the Giants favored at -185, there could be value in taking the Giants to win, especially considering they are projected to score a high average of 5.14 runs based on the odds.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Logan Webb – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)Logan Webb has relied on his slider 5.7% more often this year (27%) than he did last season (21.3%).Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Dominic Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (19.2) provides evidence that Dominic Smith has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his 10.9 actual HR/600.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Matt Chapman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)In today’s matchup, Matt Chapman is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.9% rate (97th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Athletics Insights
- Luis Severino – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Luis Severino’s 95.1-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1-mph drop off from last year’s 96.1-mph mark.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Tyler Soderstrom – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)Tyler Soderstrom is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- The Athletics have 4 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Max Muncy, Denzel Clarke, Zack Gelof, Nicholas Kurtz).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 58 games (+7.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (-105/-125)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 60 games (+9.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-120/-110)Heliot Ramos has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.20 Units / 78% ROI)