Discover Current Player Trends for Athletics vs Marlins – Saturday May 03, 2025

Athletics

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins host the Oakland Athletics on May 3, 2025, both teams find themselves at different points in the season. The Marlins struggle with a record of 12-19, while the Athletics sit above average at 18-15. This game marks the second contest in their series, which began with a lopsided 6-1 victory for the Athletics on May 2.

On the mound, the Marlins are projected to send out Max Meyer, who has shown promise this season despite a rocky start. With a solid ERA of 3.18 and a xFIP of 2.32, it’s clear that Meyer has been somewhat unlucky, and the projections suggest a better performance is on the horizon. Conversely, Osvaldo Bido will take the hill for the Athletics. While he possesses a fairly average ERA of 4.31, his xFIP of 5.81 points toward some concerning trends, indicating he might be in for a rough outing.

The Marlins have been inconsistent at the plate, ranking 15th overall in MLB offense and hovering around 20th in home runs. Their best hitter, enjoying a hot streak in recent games, is batting an impressive .700 with 6 RBIs over the last week. However, the Athletics’ offense is slightly more potent, ranking 11th overall and 9th in batting average. They also sport a deep lineup with a capable number of home runs, which could exploit any mistakes from Meyer.

Betting markets suggest a close contest, with the Marlins’ moneyline set at -130. Given Meyer’s potential to outperform his season stats against a middling Athletics offense, this matchup could tilt in the Marlins’ favor if he can capitalize on his strikeout capability against an Athletics lineup that does not strike out often.

Athletics Insights

• Osvaldo Bido – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Osvaldo Bido’s 93.2-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.6-mph drop off from last year’s 94.8-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Extreme flyball bats like Brent Rooker tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Max Meyer.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Athletics batters jointly rank 21st- in the majors for power this year when using their 92-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Max Meyer – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Max Meyer (47.7% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 FB hitters in Sacramento’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Kyle Stowers has a ton of pop (80th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (29.7% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Osvaldo Bido is a pitch-to-contact type (10th percentile K%) — great news for Stowers.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Dane Myers hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.1% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 25 games (+7.20 Units / 24% ROI)
• Athletics – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.95 Units / 46% ROI)
• Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Nick Kurtz has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 67% ROI)