Houston Astros
Oakland Athletics
(-125/+105)+130
The Oakland Athletics, who are having a dismal season with a 39-62 record, will host the slightly above-average Houston Astros (52-47) at the Oakland Coliseum on July 22, 2024. This American League West matchup is the first game in the series between these two teams. The Athletics are looking to bounce back from their recent loss to the Los Angeles Angels, where they fell 8-5 on July 21. Meanwhile, the Astros also come into this game after a close defeat, losing 6-4 to the Seattle Mariners.
On the mound for the Athletics is Hogan Harris, a left-handed pitcher who has struggled this season. Despite a respectable 3.40 ERA, Harris’s 5.23 xFIP suggests he has been quite fortunate and is likely to regress. He owns a 1-3 record in his 8 starts and has shown control issues, walking 11.2% of the batters he’s faced. Harris’s last start on July 12 was particularly rough, going just 3 innings while allowing 2 earned runs, 0 strikeouts, 3 hits, and 6 walks.
The Astros will counter with Spencer Arrighetti, a right-handed pitcher with a 5.63 ERA and a 4-7 record over 17 starts. Although his ERA looks rough, his 4.34 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Arrighetti pitched well in his last outing on July 13, going 6 innings and allowing just 1 earned run while striking out 7.
Offensively, the Athletics have not been great, ranking 20th in MLB with an average batting performance and 28th in team batting average. However, they rank 4th in home runs, showing some power potential. Brent Rooker continues to be a bright spot for the A’s, hitting .294 with 22 home runs and a .951 OPS.
The Astros, on the other hand, boast the 9th best offense overall, leading the league in batting average and ranking 9th in home runs. Yordan Alvarez has been stellar for Houston, hitting .301 with 20 home runs and a .931 OPS.
The Athletics’ bullpen is ranked 14th according to advanced-stat power rankings, while the Astros boast a stronger bullpen ranked 5th. This gives Houston another edge as they seek to capitalize on Oakland’s weaknesses.
THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Astros a solid edge, projecting them to score 5.14 runs compared to the Athletics’ 4.21 runs. With Houston favored at -145 and an implied win probability of 57%, they are expected to take advantage of the struggling Athletics and their beleaguered pitcher, Hogan Harris.
Houston Astros Insights
- Houston Astros – Moneyline (-150)The Houston Astros infield defense profiles as the 3rd-best out of every team playing today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Yordan Alvarez has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.8-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 92.8-mph mark.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Chas McCormick – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Chas McCormick has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and will be challenged by the game’s 10th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Oakland Athletics Insights
- Hogan Harris – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-165)Hogan Harris has recorded 14.6 outs per GS this year, placing in the 14th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)Houston’s #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for J.J. Bleday, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- The Oakland Athletics have 6 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Shea Langeliers, Max Schuemann, Seth Brown, Brent Rooker, Zack Gelof, Lawrence Butler).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Oakland Athletics – Run Line +1.5 (-130)The Oakland Athletics have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 45 games at home (+6.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (+110)The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 38 games (+16.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-150/+120)Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+14.05 Units / 45% ROI)