Discover Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Twins vs Red Sox – 9/21/2024

Minnesota Twins

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Boston Red Sox

As the MLB season draws closer to its end, the Boston Red Sox and Minnesota Twins are set to face off in the second game of a doubleheader on September 22, 2024, at Fenway Park. With the Red Sox sitting at 76-78, their season has been average, and they’re not in the playoff race. The Twins, however, sport a record of 81-73 and are having an above-average season, vying for postseason contention. In the first game of the doubleheader, the Twins edged out the Red Sox, adding extra intrigue to this matchup.

The Red Sox will send Kutter Crawford to the mound, who is ranked as the 75th best starting pitcher in MLB this season according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Crawford’s 4.19 ERA suggests he’s been solid, though his 4.74 FIP hints at potential regression. With 31 starts this year, he has an 8-15 record. Despite allowing a high number of hits and walks, Crawford is projected to allow just 2.2 earned runs on average today, a promising sign for Boston.

On the other side, the Twins will counter with Zebby Matthews. Although Matthews has struggled with a 6.30 ERA in his seven starts, his 3.96 xFIP indicates he’s been unlucky and might improve. The projections suggest Matthews could allow 2.5 earned runs today, which could keep the game competitive.

Offensively, Boston has an edge with their 8th-ranked lineup, showcasing power and contact. Trevor Story has been Boston’s standout hitter recently, delivering a 0.868 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, the Twins’ offense ranks 11th but has been propelled by Carlos Correa’s hot streak, highlighted by a 0.961 OPS in his last four games.

Betting markets see this as a tight contest, with both teams at -110 on the moneyline. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Red Sox a 55% win probability, suggesting value on Boston. As both teams battle for different stakes, this encounter promises to be a thrilling end to the day at Fenway.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Zebby Matthews – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Zebby Matthews has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 9.8 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Matt Wallner is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Boston (#3-best of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• It may be smart to expect better numbers for the Minnesota Twins offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 9th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Kutter Crawford – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  When assessing his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Kutter Crawford in the 81st percentile among all SPs in the majors.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Romy Gonzalez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Romy Gonzalez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (62% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Boston’s 89.1-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in MLB: #8 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 32 games (+12.00 Units / 34% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+7.75 Units / 25% ROI)
• Triston Casas – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+690/-1400)
  Triston Casas has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 43 games (+12.40 Units / 29% ROI)