Discover Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Tigers vs Orioles – 9/22/2024

Detroit Tigers

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles and Detroit Tigers prepare to face off in the series finale at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 22, 2024, both teams find themselves in interesting spots this late in the season. The Orioles, sitting at 86-69, are having a good season and are firmly in the playoff hunt, while the Tigers at 81-74 have had an above-average campaign. In their last meeting, the Tigers took a 6-4 victory, narrowing the gap between these two American League contenders in what promises to be another tight matchup.

Baltimore will send Albert Suarez to the mound. While Suarez sports a respectable 3.60 ERA, his peripheral stats, including a 4.55 xFIP, suggest he might be in for some regression. With 22 starts and a mixed role in the bullpen, his 8-6 record reflects some inconsistency. On the flip side, the Orioles’ offense, ranked 6th in MLB, is potent, boasting the 2nd-most home runs in the league, which could provide the necessary firepower to support Suarez.

Detroit counters with Tyler Holton, whose 2.30 ERA is excellent, though his xFIP of 3.76 indicates some luck has been involved. Despite being slated for a shorter outing, Holton’s ability to keep runs off the board could play a crucial role, especially considering the Orioles’ powerful lineup. The Tigers’ offense, however, ranks 24th, lacking the punch Baltimore possesses.

The bullpens tell a tale of contrasts. The Tigers’ bullpen is 2nd-best according to the Power Rankings, a stark contrast to their 20th spot in year-to-date rankings, indicating a recent uptick in performance. Meanwhile, the Orioles’ bullpen struggles in the 20th spot, potentially giving Detroit an edge in the later innings.

Given the projections and betting markets, Baltimore is slightly favored, with a 52% win probability as per THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligning closely with the implied odds. Expect a competitive clash as these teams vie for momentum in the final stretch of the season.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  Considering the 1.74 difference between Tyler Holton’s 2.30 ERA and his 4.04 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in Major League Baseball this year and should see worse results the rest of the season.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Parker Meadows has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (54% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Detroit Tigers batters jointly rank near the cellar of Major League Baseball this year ( 9th-worst) when assessing their 88.5-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Albert Suarez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Ranking in the 14th percentile, Albert Suarez has recorded an 18% K% this year.
  Explain: One of the best indicators of future strikeouts is past strikeouts.
• Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  When starting against a left-handed pitcher since the start of last season, Ryan O’Hearn has been pinch hit for 11% of the time.
  Explain: Being removed for a pinch hitter would be mean fewer at-bats and fewer opportunities to hit the Over on all props.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  In today’s game, Anthony Santander is at a disadvantage facing the league’s deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.1% rate (98th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 70 games (+15.15 Units / 19% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (+110)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 67 games (+16.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+140/-185)
  Gunnar Henderson has hit the Walks Under in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+9.70 Units / 34% ROI)