Discover Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Rays vs Rangers – July 05, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays

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Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays on July 5, 2024, at Globe Life Field, fans can anticipate a tightly contested matchup. While neither team is currently making waves in the standings, this American League battle still offers intriguing elements for bettors and baseball enthusiasts alike.

The Rangers, coming off a loss to the San Diego Padres on July 4, have struggled this season with a 39-48 record. Their offense, ranked 19th in MLB, has shown flashes but remains inconsistent. Meanwhile, the Rays, sitting at an average 44-43, have shown more balance. Tampa Bay’s offense, though ranked 21st, benefits from a strong stolen base game, ranking 4th in MLB.

On the mound, Texas will start Michael Lorenzen, who has a solid 3.40 ERA despite recent struggles. Lorenzen’s advanced peripherals—specifically a 4.70 xFIP—suggest he’s been somewhat fortunate this season, and his last outing saw him give up five earned runs over five innings. Projected to allow 2.5 earned runs and strike out 4.6 batters in 5.4 innings, Lorenzen will need to combat his recent inconsistency.

For Tampa Bay, Shane Baz takes the hill, bringing a less impressive but serviceable profile. With a projection of 4.6 innings pitched, 2.3 earned runs allowed, and 4.1 strikeouts, Baz aims to rebound from his last disastrous start, where he allowed seven earned runs in just two innings. Though his projections are slightly better than Lorenzen’s, Baz still faces a challenge against the Rangers’ lineup.

Offensively, the Rangers will lean on Marcus Semien, who has been their standout hitter with 11 home runs and 45 RBIs. Wyatt Langford has been the hot hand recently, batting .450 over the last week. For the Rays, Isaac Paredes remains their top offensive weapon, boasting a .276 average and .846 OPS this season, while Brandon Lowe has been electric lately, hitting .313 with three home runs over the past week.

Both bullpens could play a crucial role, with Texas ranked 19th and Tampa Bay holding a stronger 11th spot in the Power Rankings. The game’s total stands at 8.5 runs, indicating an average-scoring affair.

Betting markets currently favor the Rangers with a -120 moneyline, translating to a 52% implied win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives Texas a slightly higher 54% chance of victory. Expect a close game with a marginal edge to the Rangers, who are projected to score 4.44 runs against the Rays’ 4.34.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Taylor Walls – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-110/-120)
  Utilizing Statcast data, Taylor Walls grades out in the 1st percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .186.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Tampa Bay Rays batters jointly have been among the worst in Major League Baseball this year ( 4th-worst) when it comes to their 88-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Tallying 17.6 outs per game per started this year on average, Michael Lorenzen checks in at the 87th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Jonah Heim – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  In the past week, Jonah Heim’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.7% up to 30%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Corey Seager – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Corey Seager projects as the 11th-best batter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 68 games (+13.80 Units / 18% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-150)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 55 of their last 85 games (+22.60 Units / 22% ROI)
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Josh Lowe has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.40 Units / 33% ROI)