Detailed Player Insights for Reds vs Cubs – 9/29/2024

Cincinnati Reds

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds prepare for their series finale on September 29, 2024, the Cubs have the edge both on paper and in recent performance. With an 83-78 record, Chicago is having an above-average season, whereas Cincinnati, at 76-85, is enduring a below-average campaign. This National League Central clash sees the Cubs aiming to sweep the three-game series after shutting out the Reds 3-0 in their last meeting on September 28.

Caleb Kilian gets the nod for the Cubs, despite a rocky start this year, with an ERA of 7.94 suggesting struggles. However, his xFIP of 6.36 indicates that he might have been a bit unlucky so far. On the flip side, Hunter Greene of the Reds boasts an impressive 2.83 ERA, although his xFIP of 4.16 suggests he might be due for some regression. Greene has been a solid performer this year, making 25 starts with a respectable 9-5 record, but his abbreviated last outing could raise concerns about his stamina.

Offensively, the Cubs rank as the 13th best in MLB, with Ian Happ leading the charge. Meanwhile, the Reds struggle with the 20th best offense, relying heavily on Elly De La Cruz’s contributions. The Cubs’ bullpen also holds an advantage, ranking 18th, compared to the Reds’ 25th spot.

The projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, slightly favor the Cubs with a 54% win probability, compared to the even 50% implied by the betting markets. With Kilian potentially due for a better outing and the Cubs’ offense showing more consistency, Chicago has a good opportunity to continue their momentum and close out the series with a win at Wrigley Field.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Hunter Greene – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Hunter Greene to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 60 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Elly De La Cruz has a ton of pop (85th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (31.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Caleb Kilian is a pitch-to-contact type (8th percentile K%) — great news for De La Cruz.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Tyler Stephenson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Tyler Stephenson has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Caleb Kilian – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Caleb Kilian in the 14th percentile when estimating his strikeout skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Seiya Suzuki has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.6-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 91.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Chicago Cubs have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Christian Bethancourt, Kevin Alcantara, Michael Busch).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 71 games at home (+16.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 86 of their last 150 games (+12.95 Units / 7% ROI)
• Ty France – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 away games (+11.00 Units / 55% ROI)