Detailed Player Insights for Rangers vs Athletics – 9/25/2024

Texas Rangers

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Oakland Athletics

As the Oakland Athletics host the Texas Rangers at Oakland Coliseum on September 25, 2024, both teams are looking to end underwhelming seasons on a positive note. The Athletics, currently holding a 68-89 record, have struggled throughout the year, while the Rangers have been slightly better, sitting at 74-83. Both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, making this American League West matchup more about pride and development for the future.

In yesterday’s series opener, the Athletics were able to secure a win against the Rangers, setting the stage for today’s matchup. Oakland sends left-hander Brady Basso to the mound. Basso, despite an impressive 2.33 ERA, has been fortunate with a 3.70 xFIP suggesting regression is likely. He has started only three games this season but boasts a 1-0 record. The Athletics will hope he can continue his luck against a struggling Rangers offense that ranks 25th in MLB.

The Rangers counter with Cody Bradford, an average left-hander who has managed a 6-3 record with a solid 3.59 ERA over 12 starts. Bradford is projected to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, which is a favorable outlook for Texas against an Athletics offense that ranks 20th in power rankings. Despite their low team batting average, the Athletics have shown pop, ranking 7th in home runs.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Athletics a slight edge with a 52% win probability, slightly above their market-implied probability of 51%. Betting markets anticipate a close game with low scoring, as evidenced by the game total set at 7.5 runs. With both teams’ offenses ranking poorly, this game may come down to which starting pitcher can outperform expectations.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  Cody Bradford is an extreme flyball pitcher (39% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #30 HR venue among all major league parks in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Adolis Garcia has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph dropping to 85.8-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Texas Rangers bats as a group grade out 22nd- in the game for power this year when assessing with their 7.4% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Brady Basso – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Brady Basso has a large reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 7 opposite-handed batters in this matchup.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Brent Rooker tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Cody Bradford.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Tyler Nevin – Over/Under Total Bases
  Tyler Nevin has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.7%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 10th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (-115)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 77 games (+9.10 Units / 11% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 56 games (+14.85 Units / 22% ROI)
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Brent Rooker has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+8.75 Units / 29% ROI)