Detailed Player Insights for Rangers vs Athletics – 9/25/2024

Texas Rangers

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Oakland Athletics

As the Oakland Athletics prepare to host the Texas Rangers on September 25, 2024, at the Oakland Coliseum, both teams find themselves wrapping up below-average seasons in the American League West. With the Athletics at 68-89 and the Rangers at 74-83, neither team is in contention for a playoff spot, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t intrigue in this matchup.

Oakland will send Brady Basso to the mound, a lefty with a strong 2.33 ERA over just three starts. While Basso’s ERA indicates an excellent performance, his 3.71 xFIP suggests he’s been fortunate, potentially setting the stage for regression. On the other side, Cody Bradford starts for Texas, boasting a solid 3.59 ERA over 12 outings. Bradford’s performance has been consistent with his reputation as an average pitcher, but he’s got a respectable 6-3 record to back it up.

When it comes to offensive production, neither team shines brightly. The Athletics rank 20th overall, with a surprising 7th place in home runs, showcasing some pop despite a low team batting average. In contrast, the Rangers’ offense struggles more, sitting at 25th overall, with nothing particularly standout to compensate.

The bullpens also tell a story. Oakland’s bullpen is ranked 10th according to power rankings, outperforming their otherwise disappointing season. Texas, with a 17th-ranked bullpen, shows more of the middle-of-the-road performance expected from their record.

As for recent form, the Athletics’ Tyler Soderstrom has been red-hot over the last week, hitting .462 with a 1.456 OPS. Meanwhile, Josh H. Smith leads the Rangers with a commendable .320 average over the same span.

With a game total of 7.5 runs, betting markets lean slightly towards Texas, but it’s expected to be a tight contest. The Athletics have a 48% implied win probability, suggesting this game could tip either way.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Cody Bradford is an extreme flyball pitcher (39% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #30 HR venue among all major league parks in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Adolis Garcia has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph dropping to 85.8-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Texas Rangers bats as a group grade out 22nd- in the game for power this year when assessing with their 7.4% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Brady Basso – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Brady Basso has a large reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 7 opposite-handed batters in this matchup.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Brent Rooker tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Cody Bradford.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Tyler Nevin – Over/Under Total Bases
  Tyler Nevin has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.7%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 10th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (-110)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 77 games (+9.10 Units / 11% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 56 games (+14.85 Units / 22% ROI)
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Brent Rooker has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+8.75 Units / 29% ROI)