Detailed Player Insights for Padres vs Orioles – 7/26/2024

San Diego Padres

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Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles and San Diego Padres are set to face off on July 26, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles, currently enjoying a strong season with a 61-41 record, will look to maintain their momentum as they host the Padres, who hold a respectable 55-50 record.

Baltimore is projected to start Grayson Rodriguez, who has been impressive this season. With a 12-4 record and a 3.83 ERA, Rodriguez ranks as the 42nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Rodriguez is expected to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out 5.0 batters on average. The Orioles’ ace will face a Padres lineup that ranks 1st in MLB in team batting average but has struggled with power, sitting at 10th in home runs.

On the mound for the Padres will be Adam Mazur, who has had a tough season with a 1-3 record and a 7.84 ERA. Mazur’s peripheral stats suggest he’s been unlucky, as indicated by his 6.02 xFIP. However, facing the Orioles’ potent offense, which ranks 3rd in MLB and leads the league in home runs, could be a daunting task. Mazur’s high flyball rate (37%) could spell trouble against Baltimore’s powerful bats.

The Orioles’ offense, led by recent standout Colton Cowser, has been firing on all cylinders. Over the past week, Cowser has hit .400 with a 1.300 OPS, including 2 home runs and 9 RBIs in 6 games. In contrast, the Padres’ best hitter over the last 7 games, Kyle Higashioka, has posted a .333 average and a 1.042 OPS in 4 games.

Baltimore’s bullpen, ranked 19th in the Power Rankings, will need to hold steady against a Padres offense that, despite its 11th-best ranking, has shown inconsistency. Meanwhile, San Diego’s bullpen, ranked 14th, will be tasked with containing a relentless Orioles lineup.

The Orioles are favored with a moneyline of -205, giving them an implied win probability of 65%. The Padres, at +175, have an implied win probability of 35%. With a game total set at 9.0 runs, expect a high-scoring affair, especially considering the Orioles’ projected team total of 5.25 runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Adam Mazur – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Among all SPs, Adam Mazur’s fastball spin rate of 2116 rpm grades out in the 17th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 89.6-mph figure last season has fallen to 87.2-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Jackson Merrill hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 4th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Grayson Rodriguez – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-170)
  Grayson Rodriguez has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 4.2 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (25.0) suggests that Gunnar Henderson has had positive variance on his side this year with his 36.5 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (-195)
  The Baltimore Orioles projected offense profiles as the 2nd-best of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-155)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 50 of their last 85 games (+9.75 Units / 9% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Run Line +1.5 (-120)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 away games (+11.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Anthony Santander has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 49 games (+18.65 Units / 19% ROI)