Detailed Player Insights for Padres vs Cubs – 4/6/2025

San Diego Padres

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Chicago Cubs

On April 6, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the San Diego Padres at Wrigley Field in what promises to be an intriguing matchup between two teams having strong starts to the season. The Cubs just came off a convincing 7-1 win against the Padres yesterday, while both teams boast impressive records of 7-4 and 7-2, respectively.

Entering this game, the Cubs will start right-handed pitcher Ben Brown, who is currently ranked as the 65th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite an ERA of 5.87 this season, his xFIP of 3.25 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could improve. However, he did allow 3 earned runs in his last outing, which may have raised concerns about his consistency.

On the other hand, the Padres will counter with left-hander Kyle Hart, who has had a solid start to the season, boasting an ERA of 3.60. Despite this, his xFIP of 4.44 indicates that he may not sustain this level of performance moving forward. With both pitchers projected to allow a similar number of earned runs today, the matchup leans towards the Cubs’ offense, which ranks 15th overall and has shown power with 16 home runs this season.

Betting markets give the Cubs a moneyline of -135, indicating a close contest. This is particularly notable given that the Cubs’ offense ranks well in power, while Hart has a tendency to give up fly balls, which could lead to trouble against a Cubs lineup that excels at hitting home runs.

As both teams look to maintain momentum, expect an exciting game where the Cubs may hold the edge, especially given their recent performance and the projected improvements for Ben Brown.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+130)
  Kyle Hart was on point in his last GS and gave up 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Jake Cronenworth has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .242 mark is a fair amount lower than his .280 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-165)
  Ben Brown is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #22 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong has struggled with his Barrel%; his 8% rate last season has fallen off to 0% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Ian Happ has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 76 games at home (+15.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+120)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 92 games (+22.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• Luis Arraez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1600/-50000)
  Luis Arraez has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 3 games (+10.00 Units / 333% ROI)