Detailed Player Insights for Nationals vs Phillies – 8/23/2025

Washington Nationals

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face the Washington Nationals on August 23, 2025, the stakes are high for the home team, who currently holds a solid 74-54 record. The Phillies are enjoying a strong season and are well-positioned within the National League East, while the Nationals, at 53-75, are struggling significantly. In their last matchup, the Nationals edged out the Phillies with a narrow 5-4 victory, adding to the intensity of this rivalry.

On the mound, Aaron Nola is projected to start for the Phillies. Despite being ranked as the 77th best starting pitcher in MLB, Nola has had a rough season with a 1-7 record and an ERA of 6.92. However, his 3.63 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky, and he may be poised for a better performance. The projections indicate he is expected to pitch around 5.2 innings while allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs.

On the other side, the Nationals will counter with Mitchell Parker, who has struggled this season, holding a 7-13 record and an ERA of 5.83. Parker’s last outing was equally disappointing, as he allowed 5 earned runs in just 2 innings pitched. With a projected average of 4.7 innings pitched today, the Nationals will need him to step up significantly to compete.

Offensively, the Phillies rank 6th in MLB, showcasing a robust lineup that includes a player with an impressive 0.954 OPS this season. In contrast, the Nationals sit at 24th in MLB, struggling to generate consistent offense. Given the recent trends and the strong overall performance of the Phillies, they are favored in this matchup, with sportsbooks setting a high game total of 10.5 runs. Expect a competitive game as the Phillies look to bounce back from their recent loss.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Mitchell Parker’s 2170-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 8th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  James Wood has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99-mph average to last season’s 96.6-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  James Wood has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)
  Aaron Nola has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 7.0 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  In terms of his home runs, Kyle Schwarber has had positive variance on his side this year. His 47.3 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 37.9.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-250)
  The 5th-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 6.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 51 of their last 85 games (+12.31 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 39 away games (+11.65 Units / 27% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+8.20 Units / 28% ROI)