Detailed Player Insights for Nationals vs Padres – 6/25/2025

Washington Nationals

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San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the Washington Nationals on June 25, 2025, both teams look to bounce back in what has been a tough season for the Nationals. Entering this matchup, the Padres sit with a record of 43-36, while the Nationals struggle at 33-47. Each team recently faced off, with the Padres edging out a close victory over the Nationals by a score of 4-3 on June 24.

On the mound, San Diego is projected to start Nick Pivetta, a right-hander with a solid 7-2 record and a 3.64 ERA this season. While Pivetta’s K% of 26.8% indicates he can generate strikeouts, he faces a Nationals lineup that has the 4th fewest strikeouts in MLB. This matchup may play into the Nationals’ favor as they seek to capitalize on Pivetta’s tendency to allow a concerning average of 4.8 hits and 1.3 walks per game.

Opposing him will be MacKenzie Gore, a left-handed pitcher for the Nationals. Gore has been inconsistent this season with a 3-7 record and a stellar 3.19 ERA. Despite his talent, he was hit hard in his last start, allowing 5 earned runs in 6 innings. With a high FB% of 38 this year and the Padres ranking 26th in home runs, this could be a difficult matchup for Gore, who may find it challenging to turn his flyballs into damaging hits.

The Padres’ offense ranks 20th overall but shows some signs of life, particularly from their best hitter, who boasts a 0.812 OPS this season. Meanwhile, the Nationals’ offense ranks 19th, but their best hitter has been heating up recently with a 0.379 batting average over the past week.

With a moneyline of -140, the Padres enter as betting favorites, but given the projections indicating a potential for lower scoring with a game total of just 7.5 runs, this matchup could be tighter than expected.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  MacKenzie Gore’s 94.7-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a significant 1.2-mph decrease from last season’s 95.9-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  James Wood has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 19.9% seasonal rate to 41.2% in the last week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Washington Nationals have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brady House, Riley Adams, James Wood).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  Nick Pivetta is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #8 HR venue in MLB in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Tyler Wade – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Tyler Wade has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen profiles as the 9th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 79 games (+7.55 Units / 9% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games (+8.39 Units / 14% ROI)
• Luis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+160/-210)
  Luis Garcia has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 15 away games (+8.80 Units / 58% ROI)