Detailed Player Insights for Angels vs Red Sox – 6/2/2025

Los Angeles Angels

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Boston Red Sox

On June 2, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Los Angeles Angels at Fenway Park for the first game in their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Red Sox holding a 29-32 record and the Angels at 26-32. The Red Sox offense, however, has been a silver lining, ranking 8th in MLB, while the Angels sit at 22nd, making their matchup particularly favorable for Boston.

In their last games, the Red Sox managed a solid win against the Angels on June 1, triumphing 3-1. Richard Fitts, the projected starter for Boston, has had a rough go this season, currently 0-2 with an impressive ERA of 2.70 that suggests he has been lucky, as indicated by his 4.42 xFIP. He has struggled with consistency, only averaging 4.1 innings pitched per start while allowing 2.3 earned runs. Still, he faces an Angels lineup that has the 2nd highest strikeout rate in baseball, an area where Fitts might find an advantage.

On the other side, Tyler Anderson, projected to start for Los Angeles, carries a 3.39 ERA and a 2-2 record. His recent performance wasn’t stellar, as he only managed to go 6 innings while conceding 1 earned run in his latest game. Despite his decent ERA, his 5.20 xFIP raises red flags about his sustainability.

The Red Sox boast a powerful offense capable of exploiting Anderson’s weaknesses, especially given the Angels’ struggles with making contact. With a high implied team total of 5.14 runs against Anderson’s below-average projections, it’s easy to see why Boston stands as a betting favorite with a moneyline of -150. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is seen as an underdog with a moneyline of +125, reflecting their struggle to find consistency this season. With all these factors at play, this matchup leans heavily in favor of the Red Sox.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Tyler Anderson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Tyler Anderson has a large reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 7 opposite-handed batters today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Luis Rengifo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Luis Rengifo is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Boston (#1-best of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Zach Neto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Zach Neto pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-150)
  Among every team on the slate today, the best infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Trevor Story is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Boston Red Sox have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Carlos Narvaez, Trevor Story, Romy Gonzalez).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 48 games (+7.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 away games (+7.15 Units / 60% ROI)
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Taylor Ward has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.15 Units / 27% ROI)