Detailed Player Insights for Angels vs Blue Jays – 7/4/2025

Los Angeles Angels

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to host the Los Angeles Angels on July 4, 2025, they are riding high after a solid win against the Angels just one day prior, taking that contest by a score of 8-5. This matchup marks the beginning of a series between these two teams, and with the Blue Jays currently sporting a 49-38 record, they find themselves in a favorable position compared to the Angels, who sit at 43-43.

Projected starters Eric Lauer and Kyle Hendricks present an intriguing contrast. Lauer, despite being ranked as the 274th best starting pitcher in MLB, has had a surprisingly effective season with a 4-1 record and an excellent ERA of 2.60. However, his peripherals indicate some luck, as his 4.15 xFIP suggests he may face challenges going forward. Lauer’s tendency to generate fly balls (45 FB% this year) could be a concern against the Angels, who have a powerful lineup that ranks 4th in MLB with 127 home runs.

On the other hand, Hendricks has also struggled, with a 5-6 record and a 4.66 ERA, but projections suggest he may outperform his current numbers. He is a low-strikeout pitcher facing a Blue Jays offense that ranks 1st in MLB for fewest strikeouts, which could give Toronto an edge.

The Blue Jays’ offense ranks 8th in MLB and is particularly strong with a .281 batting average, while the Angels’ offense checks in at 21st, struggling with a .244 average. This could play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the game.

With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs and the Blue Jays favored at -150, bettors may find value in Toronto’s strong offensive capabilities and the potential for Lauer to rise to the occasion against an average Angels lineup.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Kyle Hendricks – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Kyle Hendricks’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.9 mph this season (85.6 mph) below where it was last season (87.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Nolan Schanuel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Nolan Schanuel has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Toronto Blue Jays only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Mike Trout – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Mike Trout hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  Eric Lauer is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #3 HR venue in MLB in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Nathan Lukes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Extreme flyball bats like Nathan Lukes tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Kyle Hendricks.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Today’s version of the Blue Jays projected batting order is weaker than usual, as their .311 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .327 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 62 games (+16.80 Units / 24% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Moneyline (+120)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 24 away games (+15.05 Units / 62% ROI)
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Taylor Ward has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+11.05 Units / 23% ROI)