D-Backs vs Reds Preview and Prediction – Sunday June 8th, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Cincinnati Reds

On June 8, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Great American Ball Park for the third game of their series. The Reds are currently sitting with a record of 32-33, while the Diamondbacks are slightly behind at 31-33. Both teams are struggling to find their rhythm this season, with the Reds having an average season and the D-Backs falling below that threshold.

In their last matchup, the Reds displayed some offensive prowess, but it wasn’t enough to secure a win, further complicating their season. Projected starting pitchers Brady Singer and Zac Gallen will take the mound, presenting an intriguing matchup. Singer, ranked 144th among MLB starters, has a 6-4 record with an ERA of 4.66, indicating average performance. On the other hand, Gallen ranks 59th, with a 4-7 record and a less favorable ERA of 5.13, suggesting he has not been at his best this year.

The projections indicate that both pitchers will average 5.6 innings pitched. However, Gallen is expected to allow fewer earned runs (2.8) compared to Singer (3.2), favoring the Diamondbacks in this aspect. The Reds’ offense ranks 12th overall, which is respectable, but they face a daunting challenge against the D-Backs, who boast the 3rd-best offense in the league and lead with 89 home runs this season.

With the current Game Total set at a high 9.5 runs, the Reds find themselves as underdogs with a moneyline of +120. This creates a potentially lucrative opportunity, especially considering the Diamondbacks’ bullpen ranks 21st, suggesting they may struggle to maintain leads. As both teams navigate their challenging seasons, this game could be pivotal for the Reds to gain momentum and capitalize on their home-field advantage.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  Given the 1.06 gap between Zac Gallen’s 5.13 ERA and his 4.07 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball this year and ought to perform better in the future.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+200)
  Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Out of all SPs, Brady Singer’s fastball velocity of 91.6 mph grades out in the 20th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Jake Fraley is likely to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Spencer Steer pulls many of his flyballs (36.2% — 92nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 41 games (+11.50 Units / 25% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 48 games (+12.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+130/-170)
  Ketel Marte has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 9 away games (+6.55 Units / 73% ROI)