D-Backs vs Reds Preview and Prediction – Sunday June 8th, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Cincinnati Reds

On June 8, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Great American Ball Park for the third game of their series. The Reds come into this matchup with a record of 32-33, while the Diamondbacks sit slightly behind at 31-33. Both teams are looking to gain momentum, especially after the Reds’ impressive 13-1 victory over the D-Backs just yesterday, which saw them capitalize on a poor performance from Zac Gallen.

Brady Singer is projected to take the mound for the Reds, and while he ranks as the 145th best starting pitcher in MLB according to Power Rankings, he has struggled with control this season—posting a 9.6% walk rate and allowing an average of 5.8 hits per game. In contrast, Zac Gallen, who is currently ranked 59th, has had a rough season as well, with a 5.13 ERA, but his xFIP of 4.21 suggests he may have been unlucky and could see improved performance.

Offensively, the Reds rank 12th in MLB, with an average batting performance, while the Diamondbacks boast a much stronger offense, ranking 4th overall. The Diamondbacks’ powerful lineup has hit 90 home runs this season, the 4th most in MLB, which could pose a challenge for Singer’s flyball tendency.

With today’s game total set at a high 9.5 runs, betting markets indicate a close contest, favoring the Diamondbacks slightly at -120. However, the Reds have a solid implied team total of 4.64 runs, suggesting they could pull off another strong performance against a D-Backs team that has struggled on the mound. As both teams look to gain ground in their respective standings, this matchup promises to deliver excitement for fans and bettors alike.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  Given the 1.06 gap between Zac Gallen’s 5.13 ERA and his 4.07 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball this year and ought to perform better in the future.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Over/Under Hits
  Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Out of all SPs, Brady Singer’s fastball velocity of 91.6 mph grades out in the 20th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under Total Bases
  Jake Fraley is likely to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under Total Bases
  Spencer Steer pulls many of his flyballs (36.2% — 92nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under Game Total
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 41 games (+11.50 Units / 25% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 48 games (+12.45 Units / 18% ROI)