D-Backs vs Giants Picks and Betting Odds – 9/5/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

@

San Francisco Giants

On September 5, 2024, the San Francisco Giants will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Oracle Park in a pivotal National League West matchup. This game marks the third in the series, and with the Giants currently holding a record of 68-71, they find themselves mired in an average season. In contrast, the Diamondbacks sit at 78-61, enjoying a strong campaign. Notably, Blake Snell, projected to start for the Giants, has struggled with an unlucky 2-3 record, but advanced metrics indicate he has been better than his surface stats suggest. His 3.56 ERA belies a more impressive 2.73 xERA, indicating potential for a strong outing.

The Diamondbacks will counter with Merrill Kelly, who boasts a 4-0 record this season. However, his 4.30 ERA is coupled with an xERA of 6.06, showcasing a degree of luck that may not hold up against a Giants lineup that, despite being ranked 21st in offense league-wide, has some upside.

The Giants’ best hitter in recent games has been Mike Yastrzemski, who has recorded 2 home runs and a .308 batting average over his last week. He’ll need to continue that momentum against a Diamondbacks bullpen currently ranked 3rd in MLB. Meanwhile, Randal Grichuk has been tearing it up for Arizona, boasting a staggering .600 average over the last week, contributing significantly to their potent offensive attack, which ranks 2nd overall in the league.

With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, oddsmakers favor the Giants with an implied team total of 4.08 runs. Given the advanced projections and recent performances, it’s shaping up to be a crucial contest as both teams look to assert themselves in the division.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Merrill Kelly’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (67% compared to 57.8% last season) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jake McCarthy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Jake McCarthy has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.2-mph dropping to 80.4-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected offense today (.313 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly weaker than their .333 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Blake Snell – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Blake Snell’s fastball spin rate of 2444 rpm grades out in the 86th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.243) suggests that Tyler Fitzgerald has had some very good luck this year with his .297 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants’ bullpen grades out as the best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 99 games (+6.90 Units / 6% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 94 games (+25.65 Units / 25% ROI)
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+670/-1400)
  Heliot Ramos has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 49 games (+10.25 Units / 21% ROI)