D-Backs vs Cubs Insights and Game Breakdown – 7/19/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Wrigley Field on July 19, 2024, both teams find themselves navigating through a mixed season. The Cubs, with a 47-51 record, are having a below-average year, while the Diamondbacks sit at 49-48, reflecting an average performance. This National League matchup, the first in their series, showcases intriguing pitching dynamics and offensive contrasts.

The Cubs, fresh off a decisive 8-3 victory over the Cardinals on July 14, will send left-hander Justin Steele to the mound. Steele, ranked as the 22nd-best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has been impressive this season with a stellar 2.71 ERA over 14 starts. Despite his excellent ERA, his 3.61 xFIP suggests some luck has been involved, indicating a potential regression. Steele’s recent performance, where he pitched seven shutout innings with four strikeouts and zero walks, highlights his current form and control.

Opposing Steele will be the Diamondbacks’ right-hander Ryne Nelson. Nelson, with a 6-6 record and a 4.98 ERA, has struggled but shows signs of potential improvement as his 4.47 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky. Nelson’s last outing saw him pitch seven innings, allowing three earned runs with five strikeouts and zero walks, a respectable performance that he will look to build upon.

Offensively, the Cubs rank 17th in MLB, an average standing, but their team batting average (22nd) and home runs (20th) are less impressive. In contrast, the Diamondbacks boast the 10th-best offense, with strong rankings in team batting average (6th) and home runs (16th). Key players to watch include Ian Happ for the Cubs, who has been their standout hitter, and Ketel Marte for the Diamondbacks, who leads his team with a .292 batting average and a .877 OPS.

The Cubs bullpen, ranked 29th, has been a significant weakness, contrasting sharply with the Diamondbacks’ 14th-ranked bullpen. This disparity could play a crucial role late in the game.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Cubs are favored with a 57% win probability, aligning with their current moneyline of -145. Despite the Cubs’ struggles this season, Steele’s strong pitching and the Diamondbacks’ inconsistent offense give Chicago a slight edge in this matchup. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, suggesting a moderately high-scoring affair. Fans and bettors alike should keep an eye on this intriguing showdown at Wrigley Field.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Ryne Nelson has a mean strikeout projection of 4.3 batters in this matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Corbin Carroll has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (84% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Eugenio Suarez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.9% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 7th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Justin Steele – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Justin Steele has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 65.1% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Miles Mastrobuoni – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Miles Mastrobuoni has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Chicago Cubs have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Michael Busch, Christopher Morel, Pete Crow-Armstrong).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-125/+105)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 90 games (+7.40 Units / 7% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-125/+105)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 42 games (+15.85 Units / 34% ROI)
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+480/-800)
  Ian Happ has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 games at home (+12.60 Units / 90% ROI)