D-Backs vs Brewers Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – 9/20/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

@

Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers are set to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on September 20, 2024, at American Family Field. With the Brewers sitting at an impressive 88-65 and the Diamondbacks trailing closely at 85-68, this National League matchup has significant playoff implications. The Brewers are enjoying a great season and are eyeing a playoff spot, while the Diamondbacks are having a solid year and are in the mix for a Wild Card berth.

In their last encounter, the Brewers fell to the Diamondbacks, 5-1. Colin Rea, the Brewers’ scheduled starter, was hit hard in his previous outing, giving up 10 earned runs in just four innings on September 11. His season ERA sits at 4.14, but with a 4.92 xERA, it suggests some luck has been in play. Rea’s high-flyball tendencies could pose a challenge against the Diamondbacks’ powerful lineup, which ranks 5th in the league for home runs.

On the mound for the Diamondbacks is Zac Gallen, who boasts a solid 3.61 ERA and ranks as the 25th-best starting pitcher in MLB. Gallen’s recent performance has been strong, showing dominance with seven strikeouts over five scoreless innings in his last start. He’ll face a Brewers lineup that has shown its prowess on the base paths, ranking 3rd in stolen bases this season.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks have been a force, ranking as the 1st overall team in hitting and 2nd in batting average. Their bullpen is also top-notch, rated 1st in MLB, giving them a robust advantage late in games. On the other side, the Brewers have a reliable bullpen, ranked 9th.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Diamondbacks a 5% higher win probability than current betting markets suggest, signaling potential value in backing Arizona as they look to make a playoff push.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Zac Gallen has gone to his curveball 5.2% more often this year (27.9%) than he did last season (22.7%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Milwaukee’s #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Eugenio Suarez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Joc Pederson pulls many of his flyballs (38% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+115)
  Among every team on the slate today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Garrett Mitchell – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Garrett Mitchell is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• It may be best to expect worse results for the Milwaukee Brewers offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+115)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 81 of their last 143 games (+7.60 Units / 4% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 59 of their last 90 games (+27.55 Units / 28% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+195)
  Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 35 games (+10.80 Units / 15% ROI)