Current Player Trends for Red Sox vs Blue Jays – Wednesday September 25, 2024

Boston Red Sox

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Toronto Blue Jays

With the Toronto Blue Jays hosting the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre on September 25, 2024, fans can expect an intriguing American League East showdown. The Blue Jays, with a record of 73-85, have struggled this season and are already out of the playoff race. In contrast, the Red Sox, sitting at 80-78, are having an average year and are still clinging to slim hopes of securing a Wild Card spot.

On the mound for the Blue Jays will be Kevin Gausman, a righty who holds a solid 3.91 ERA over 30 starts this year. According to the leading MLB projection system THE BAT X, Gausman ranks as the 84th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350, indicating his above-average performance. He’s expected to pitch around 5.9 innings and strike out 6.9 batters, though his peripherals suggest he’s been a bit fortunate this season.

Opposing him is Richard Fitts for the Red Sox, who has only three starts under his belt this year. Despite his sparkling 0.00 ERA, his 5.17 xFIP implies he’s been quite lucky. Fitts’s low strikeout rate (11.1 K%) coupled with facing Toronto’s low-strikeout offense (6th least in MLB) might spell trouble for Boston.

Offensively, the Red Sox bring a strong lineup, ranking 7th in both team home runs and stolen bases. Their offensive prowess gives them an edge over a Blue Jays team that’s struggled in power categories, holding a poor 25th rank in team home runs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been hot for Toronto lately, hitting .367 with two home runs over the past week, while Triston Casas has matched his output with three homers and a 1.072 OPS for Boston.

Despite the pedestrian records on both sides, the projections slightly favor Toronto with a 56% win probability. Betting markets see a tightly-contested game, and with the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, this matchup could hinge on which starting pitcher can best navigate through these mid-tier offenses.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Richard Fitts – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Richard Fitts has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 12.3 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Connor Wong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Connor Wong’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 86.4-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 78.8-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Boston Red Sox batters as a unit place 3rd- in the majors for power this year when judging by their 9.2% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-180/+140)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kevin Gausman has relied on his secondary pitches 7.5% less often this season (41.7%) than he did last season (49.2%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  When it comes to his home runs, Alejandro Kirk has suffered from bad luck this year. His 8.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a fair amount lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 16.9.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 53 games at home (+15.65 Units / 27% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 54 away games (+8.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Tyler O’Neill has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 23 games (+9.30 Units / 40% ROI)