Current Player Trends for Red Sox vs Blue Jays – Wednesday September 25, 2024

Boston Red Sox

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays host the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre on September 25, 2024, the matchup brings together two teams with differing fortunes this season. The Blue Jays, currently at 73-85, have struggled and are looking merely to end their below-average season on a positive note. In contrast, the Red Sox, sitting at 80-78, are enjoying a more average season as they compete in the American League East.

Toronto will rely on Kevin Gausman, an above-average right-hander ranked #82 among starting pitchers in MLB Power Rankings. Despite his solid 3.91 ERA this season, his 4.91 xERA suggests some luck has been involved, which could warrant caution. Gausman has proven effective with 13 wins and an average of 6.9 strikeouts per game. On the other hand, Boston’s Richard Fitts, ranked among the worst pitchers, has displayed a remarkably lucky 0.00 ERA through three starts. However, his 5.17 xERA indicates potential regression.

Offensively, the Blue Jays will lean on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has been swinging a hot bat with a .367 average and two home runs in the last seven games. Yet, Toronto’s 25th rank in team home runs and 27th in stolen bases reveal struggles in power and speed, offsetting their #15 rank in overall offensive talent. Meanwhile, the Red Sox lineup, ranked #7, showcases strength, especially in power hitting and batting average, further enhanced by Triston Casas’s recent surge of three home runs and seven RBIs over the past week.

The Blue Jays are slight favorites, with current odds reflecting a 56% implied win probability and a potential 4.27 runs. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, offers them an even stronger 59% chance to secure a win, projecting 4.83 runs against the Red Sox’s projected 4.20 runs. With both pitchers showing signs of potential regression, the outcome will hinge on which team can capitalize on the opposing pitcher’s vulnerabilities.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Richard Fitts – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Richard Fitts has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 12.3 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Connor Wong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Connor Wong’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 86.5-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 81-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Boston Red Sox batters as a unit place 3rd- in the majors for power this year when judging by their 9.2% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kevin Gausman has relied on his secondary pitches 7.5% less often this season (41.7%) than he did last season (49.2%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Davis Schneider – Over/Under Total Bases
  Boston’s #2-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Davis Schneider, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 53 games at home (+15.65 Units / 27% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 54 away games (+8.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+510/-900)
  Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 38 games (+8.80 Units / 23% ROI)