Current Player Trends for Mariners vs Dodgers – Monday August 19, 2024

Seattle Mariners

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Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to face the Seattle Mariners on August 19, 2024, they enter the matchup riding high after a narrow win against the St. Louis Cardinals, finishing 2-1. The Dodgers are firmly in the playoff hunt, boasting a strong record of 73-52, while the Mariners sit at 64-61 and are having an average season.

The Dodgers will send Gavin Stone to the mound, who has had a solid year with a 10-5 record and a respectable ERA of 3.63. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit lucky, as indicated by his xFIP of 4.21, which is higher than his ERA. Stone’s low strikeout rate of 18.7% could be a concern, especially against a Mariners lineup that leads the league in strikeouts.

On the other side, Bryan Woo has been impressive for Seattle, holding a 5-1 record and an outstanding 2.06 ERA. His low walk rate of 2.5% should play well against a Dodgers offense that ranks 2nd in walks drawn. Despite his excellence, Woo’s xFIP of 3.78 indicates he might also be due for a regression, particularly given his projections today.

The Dodgers’ offense ranks 5th in the league and is particularly potent, with Shohei Ohtani leading the charge. With a projected team total of 4.54 runs and a high projection of 5.66 runs, they are expected to capitalize on any mistakes made by Woo. The projections favor the Dodgers, making them a solid bet for today’s matchup, especially against a Mariners offense that ranks 27th overall.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Seattle Mariners – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Bryan Woo was in good form in his previous game started and allowed 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Josh Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Josh Rojas is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Bryan Woo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s game) profiles as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Gavin Stone – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-145)
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Gavin Stone is projected to throw 84 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 15th-least of the day.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Freddie Freeman has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen grades out as the 6th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 55 games at home (+6.95 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 30 away games (+12.15 Units / 36% ROI)
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+100/-130)
  Mookie Betts has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 49 games (+12.90 Units / 25% ROI)