Current Player Trends for Mariners vs Cubs – Saturday June 21, 2025

Seattle Mariners

@

Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to take on the Seattle Mariners on June 21, 2025, they find themselves in a strong position, holding a record of 45-30 and ranking 4th in MLB offense. The Cubs are coming off a solid performance, looking to build momentum after winning the first game of this series. In contrast, the Mariners, who currently sit at 38-36, are feeling the pressure to improve their average season.

Both teams will send right-handed pitchers to the mound, with the Cubs projected to start Cade Horton, who has a Win/Loss record of 3-1 and a commendable ERA of 3.47. However, Horton’s advanced-stat Power Ranking positions him as the 121st best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he may be below average despite his solid ERA. He projects to pitch 4.4 innings while allowing 2.9 earned runs, a concerning average given the high stakes of this matchup.

On the other hand, Emerson Hancock will take the ball for the Mariners. His performance has been lackluster, as he ranks among the worst pitchers in MLB with a 4.48 ERA and a Win/Loss record of 3-2. Hancock’s projections are similarly grim, as he is expected to pitch around 4.4 innings while allowing 3.7 earned runs.

Offensively, the Cubs have the edge, ranking 4th in runs scored and 6th in team batting average, while the Mariners sit at 14th in runs. With the Cubs projected to score around 6.69 runs today, they appear to be the betting favorites at a moneyline of -165. The Mariners, while boasting a strong stolen base game, are likely to struggle against the Cubs’ potent lineup. Given the Cubs’ overall performance metrics and latest trends, they have a solid chance to capitalize on this matchup.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Emerson Hancock – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Emerson Hancock’s sinker percentage has risen by 7.2% from last year to this one (29.8% to 37%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Randy Arozarena – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Randy Arozarena has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 91.7-mph dropping to 80.3-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Emerson Hancock – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’s expected catcher today, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-165)
  The Chicago Cubs outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-best among all the teams playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Typically, batters like Kyle Tucker who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Emerson Hancock.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 73 games (+12.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 12.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 71 games (+5.05 Units / 6% ROI)
• Emerson Hancock – Over/Under 3.5 Earned Runs (-150/+120)
  Emerson Hancock has hit the Earned Runs Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.25 Units / 63% ROI)