Current Player Trends for Braves vs Reds – Wednesday September 18, 2024

Atlanta Braves

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds host the Atlanta Braves on September 18, 2024, the two teams find themselves at different points in the season. The Braves, sitting at 81-70, have had an above-average campaign and are in the thick of playoff contention, looking to capitalize on every opportunity to secure their spot. Meanwhile, the Reds, with a 74-78 record, have been having an average year and will look to play spoiler in this National League clash at Great American Ball Park.

Yesterday, the Reds narrowly edged out the Braves in a 6-5 victory, showcasing resilience and setting the stage for another competitive matchup. On the mound, Cincinnati sends Jakob Junis, a right-hander who boasts an impressive 2.73 ERA despite being one of the lower-ranked starters, according to advanced Power Rankings. His excellent ERA is counterbalanced by a 3.96 xFIP, suggesting he’s been fortunate this season. Junis is 4-0, making just four starts this year, and will aim to outperform his projections, which indicate a rough outing against a potent Braves lineup.

Spencer Schwellenbach takes the hill for Atlanta, bringing a decent 3.73 ERA. Currently ranked 30th among starters, Schwellenbach’s prowess slightly surpasses his 6-7 win-loss record. His recent performances have been solid, and he’s projected to keep the Reds’ offense in check. Given Cincinnati’s offensive struggles—ranking 26th in batting average—the Braves’ starter could have the upper hand.

Offensively, Atlanta’s firepower, highlighted by Marcell Ozuna’s standout season, ranks 7th in home runs, while the Reds lean on their speed, stealing bases at the 2nd highest rate. The Braves’ bullpen further bolsters their chances, ranked 9th, compared to Cincinnati’s 25th.

With the Braves favored by sportsbooks, and THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, giving them a 57% chance of victory, Atlanta holds a slight edge. However, this series has already proven competitive, keeping tonight’s outcome far from certain.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Spencer Schwellenbach will have the handedness advantage against 6 opposing bats in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jorge Soler – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Jorge Soler has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph to 99-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Atlanta Braves have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (+115)
  Among every team on the slate today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Tyler Stephenson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.304) provides evidence that Tyler Stephenson has been very fortunate this year with his .338 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen projects as the 6th-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line +1.5 (-140)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 78 of their last 134 games (+15.25 Units / 8% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 88 of their last 144 games (+30.65 Units / 19% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-120/-110)
  Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 49 games (+8.25 Units / 14% ROI)