Toronto Blue Jays
Cincinnati Reds
(-110/-110)+110
On September 2, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Great American Ball Park for the second game of their interleague series. The Reds, currently sitting at 70-68, are having an average season and recently secured a narrow 5-4 victory over the Blue Jays. This win came amidst a challenging stretch for Cincinnati, making this matchup crucial as they aim to build momentum.
The Blue Jays are in a better position with a record of 79-59, showcasing their strong offensive capabilities as they rank 2nd in MLB. Their best hitter has been particularly effective, boasting a .310 batting average and a .832 OPS this season. However, the Reds’ offense, while ranked 17th overall, has shown flashes of potential, especially with their top hitter performing well recently.
On the mound, Scott Barlow is projected to start for the Reds. Despite being classified as a below-average pitcher with a Power Ranking of #127, Barlow has had a solid season out of the bullpen with a 3.30 ERA. His ability to strike out batters (26.0 K%) will be tested against the Blue Jays, who have the least strikeouts in MLB, potentially giving Toronto an advantage.
Jose Berrios will take the hill for the Blue Jays. With a solid 3.95 ERA and a recent strong performance where he pitched 6 innings with only 2 earned runs, Berrios will be looking to bounce back after the team’s recent loss. However, projections suggest he may struggle against a Reds lineup that, while average, can capitalize on mistakes.
With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, betting markets indicate a closely contested game ahead. The Reds have a slight edge in the moneyline at +100, suggesting they could be undervalued given their recent performance. As both teams look to establish themselves, this matchup promises to be an intriguing clash of styles.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Jose Berrios – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Over his previous 3 outings, Jose Berrios has generated a big rise in his fastball velocity: from 91.5 mph over the whole season to 92.5 mph of late.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)This season, Daulton Varsho has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.5 mph compared to last year’s 91.1 mph mark.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Bo Bichette – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Bo Bichette has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Despite technically being the “starter” today, Scott Barlow may not last more than a couple frames consider he will function as more of an opener.Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
- Noelvi Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Despite posting a .357 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Noelvi Marte has had positive variance on his side given the .045 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .312.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- The Cincinnati Reds have done a strong job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 16.3° angle is among the highest in Major League Baseball this year (#2 overall).Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 79 of their last 135 games (+24.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 61 of their last 102 games (+22.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-185)Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 51% ROI)