Current Player Trends for Athletics vs Nationals – Thursday August 07, 2025

Athletics

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the Oakland Athletics on August 7, 2025, both teams are looking to shake off disappointing seasons. The Nationals sit at 45-68, while the Athletics hold a record of 50-66, both struggling to find consistent success. This matchup is particularly intriguing as the Nationals lost the previous game in this series.

The projected starters, Mitchell Parker for the Nationals and Jacob Lopez for the Athletics, present a study in contrasts. Parker has had a challenging year, registering a 7-11 record with a 5.35 ERA, positioning him as one of the worst pitchers in the league according to advanced stats. His high flyball rate (37% FB) could be problematic against an Athletics offense that ranks 6th in MLB with 159 home runs this season. Notably, Parker’s projections are less than impressive, suggesting he’ll allow an average of 2.8 earned runs and 5.6 hits today.

In contrast, Jacob Lopez, while not elite, has been effective with a 3.99 ERA and a solid average strikeout rate. His ability to strikeout batters at a rate of 27.2% reflects his potential to keep Nationals hitters at bay, especially since Washington struggles against high-strikeout pitchers.

From an offensive perspective, the Athletics boast the 7th best offense in MLB, with a strong batting average and power numbers. Meanwhile, the Nationals’ offense has been lackluster, ranking 23rd overall. Although the Nationals have a projected team total of 4.29 runs, the Athletics’ high implied total of 4.71 suggests they might fare better in this matchup.

Athletics Insights

• Jacob Lopez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Out of all SPs, Jacob Lopez’s fastball spin rate of 2124 rpm is in the 3rd percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Despite posting a .435 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Nicholas Kurtz has experienced some positive variance given the .086 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .349.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Athletics’ bullpen grades out as the worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Mitchell Parker will rack up an average of 4.6 strikeouts today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Paul DeJong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Paul DeJong has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (85% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.1%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.