Cubs vs Yankees Prediction and Game Breakdown – Saturday July 12, 2025

Chicago Cubs

@

New York Yankees

On July 12, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Chicago Cubs at Yankee Stadium in what promises to be an exciting Interleague matchup. Both teams are enjoying successful seasons, with the Yankees sitting at 53-41 and the Cubs at 55-39. The Yankees are currently the betting favorites, with a moneyline of -165, reflecting their strong offensive performance this year.

In their last game, the Yankees showcased their power, hitting multiple home runs, bolstering their reputation as the 1st best team in MLB for home runs this season. The Yankees’ lineup is thriving, ranking 1st in MLB for total runs scored and 4th in batting average. Their best hitter has been particularly hot, boasting a .500 batting average over the past week, which could be crucial against Cubs’ pitcher Matthew Boyd.

Max Fried, projected to start for the Yankees, has been a standout this season, with an impressive 11-2 record and a stellar 2.27 ERA. Fried’s high groundball rate (52 GB%) could work in his favor against the Cubs, who have demonstrated their power with 139 home runs this year, ranking 3rd in the league. However, Fried’s xFIP suggests he may not maintain his current performance level, indicating potential vulnerability.

On the other hand, Matthew Boyd, with a solid 9-3 record and a 2.52 ERA, will take the mound for the Cubs. Though Boyd has been effective, his xFIP indicates he might have been fortunate this season. Boyd’s low walk rate (5.6 BB%) could counter the Yankees’ patient approach at the plate, but he will need to navigate their powerful lineup carefully.

With a game total set at 8.5 runs, this matchup is expected to be competitive. The Yankees’ offensive prowess and Fried’s elite pitching could give them the edge, making them a promising pick for bettors looking to capitalize on their favorable odds.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+140)
  The Chicago Cubs outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-strongest out of every team in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Dansby Swanson has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Chicago Cubs have been the 4th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-170)
  Max Fried is an extreme groundball pitcher (52% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #6 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Giancarlo Stanton – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-140)
  Giancarlo Stanton has performed at a clip of 0 stolen bases per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, placing in the 0th percentile for base-stealing.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• The 11.8% Barrel% of the New York Yankees ranks them as the #1 squad in MLB this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 80 games (+8.82 Units / 10% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+140)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 86 games (+8.90 Units / 7% ROI)
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+130)
  Ian Happ has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+9.30 Units / 79% ROI)