Cubs vs White Sox Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Sunday, July 27, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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Chicago White Sox

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to face off against the Chicago Cubs on July 27, 2025, at Guaranteed Rate Field, both teams find themselves on opposite ends of the performance spectrum this season. The White Sox are struggling significantly with a record of 38-67, while the Cubs boast a strong 61-43 record, making this an intriguing interleague matchup.

In their previous game, the Cubs showcased their offensive prowess, helping them secure a comfortable win against the White Sox. The Cubs have been among the league’s best, ranking 4th in overall offense, 4th in team batting average, and 3rd in home runs. Conversely, the White Sox offense is ranked a dismal 29th across the board, indicating their struggles to generate runs.

On the mound, the White Sox are projected to start Grant Taylor, who has had a mixed season with a 3.93 ERA and a 0-1 record. Despite being ranked as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB, Taylor’s average project of 3.6 innings pitched today may not be enough to contain a powerful Cubs lineup. He excels in generating ground balls with a 59% rate, which could be crucial against a Cubs team that has hit 155 home runs this season.

The Cubs will counter with Ben Brown, who has had a rough season with a 6.48 ERA. However, Brown’s projections suggest he could allow only 2.1 earned runs today, which is above average considering the context of his season.

With the Cubs favored heavily, the betting line reflects their strong likelihood of victory, but the White Sox’s pitching has potential for an upset, especially if Taylor can harness his groundball prowess effectively. Expect a high-scoring affair, with the game total set at 9.0 runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Ben Brown – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Ben Brown’s 95.2-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.3-mph decline from last season’s 96.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Chicago’s #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Kyle Tucker, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Chicago Cubs hitters collectively grade out 4th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when assessing with their 10.4% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Grant Taylor – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Grant Taylor to be limited in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 71 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under Total Bases
  Andrew Benintendi has made significant improvements with his Barrel%, improving his 6.3% rate last season to 11.8% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Mike Tauchman – Over/Under Total Bases
  Mike Tauchman has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 5th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (+105)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 49 games at home (+14.45 Units / 24% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-200)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 94 games (+7.35 Units / 5% ROI)
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
  Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 8 games (+3.40 Units / 35% ROI)