Cubs vs Royals Prediction and Team Stats Analysis – 7/26/24

Chicago Cubs

@

Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals are set to host the Chicago Cubs at Kauffman Stadium on July 26, 2024, in the first game of their Interleague series. The Royals have been enjoying an above-average season, boasting a 56-47 record, and they currently hold playoff aspirations. Meanwhile, the Cubs are having a challenging year with a 49-55 record, and they are not contending for a playoff spot.

Brady Singer (6-6, 3.00 ERA), who ranks as the 86th best starting pitcher according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, will take the mound for Kansas City. Singer has been solid this season, and although his xFIP of 3.54 suggests some luck, he remains a reliable arm. On the other side, the Cubs will counter with Kyle Hendricks (2-8, 6.69 ERA), who has struggled this season. Despite a poor ERA, Hendricks’s xFIP of 4.49 indicates he has been somewhat unlucky and might be due for better performances.

Offensively, the Royals hold several advantages. Kansas City’s lineup is ranked 13th in MLB, with a respectable batting average (11th) and a notable penchant for stealing bases (8th). The Cubs’ offense, ranked 21st, has struggled, particularly in batting average (23rd) and home runs (23rd). However, both teams are adept at swiping bags, ranking 8th in stolen bases.

Bobby Witt Jr. has been a standout for Kansas City, smashing 16 hits, 8 runs, 7 RBIs, 2 home runs, and a stolen base over his last 6 games, with a scorching .696 batting average and a 1.905 OPS. Comparatively, Miguel Amaya has been the Cubs’ best hitter over the past week, albeit in fewer games, with a .667 batting average and a 1.394 OPS.

Kansas City’s bullpen, ranked 16th, is solid yet unspectacular, which looks stout compared to the Cubs’ 28th-ranked bullpen. This disparity, combined with Kansas City’s above-average offense and Singer’s reliability, makes them the favorites with a moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%.

In terms of projections from THE BAT X, the Royals have a high implied team total of 4.81 runs today, reflecting their favorable matchup against Hendricks and the Cubs’ struggling bullpen. With both teams’ tendencies and the high Game Total set at 9.0 runs, expect some offensive fireworks in this series opener.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Kyle Hendricks – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kyle Hendricks has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 7.9% more often this year (52.6%) than he did last season (44.7%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Dansby Swanson has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 8.7% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Among all starters, Brady Singer’s fastball velocity of 91.5 mph is in the 21st percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Adam Frazier – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Adam Frazier is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Hunter Renfroe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Hunter Renfroe pulls a lot of his flyballs (40% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 4th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Run Line -1.5 (+135)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 57 of their last 98 games (+9.09 Units / 7% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 100 games (+11.15 Units / 10% ROI)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-155)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+10.45 Units / 31% ROI)