Chicago Cubs
Kansas City Royals
(-110/-110)-140
The Kansas City Royals, sitting at 57-47, continue to have an above-average season as they prepare to take on the struggling Chicago Cubs, who are currently 49-56. This matchup is the second in the series between these two teams, with the Royals having convincingly won the first game by a score of 6-0 on July 26. Seth Lugo pitched a complete game shutout in that contest, showcasing his excellent form.
On the mound for the Royals will be Seth Lugo, who boasts a remarkable 2.38 ERA over 21 starts this season and an impressive Win/Loss record of 12-4. Despite his success, his 3.69 xFIP suggests some regression could be on the horizon. Lugo has been solid in his last start on July 21, going the distance and allowing just one earned run in a complete game effort. On the other side, the Cubs are sending Shota Imanaga, who holds a strong 2.86 ERA and an 8-2 record. Imanaga has also been fortunate with his 3.73 xFIP indicating a potential dip in performance.
The Royals’ offense, ranked 12th in MLB, has been led by the red-hot Bobby Witt Jr., who has a .343 batting average and a .978 OPS this season. Witt Jr. has been even better over the last week, hitting .583 with a 1.532 OPS. The Cubs, meanwhile, have struggled offensively, ranking 22nd in MLB, with Ian Happ being their standout performer with a .786 OPS.
From a betting perspective, the Royals are slight favorites with a Moneyline of -135, implying a 55% chance of winning, while THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives them a 53% chance. Despite the close odds, Kansas City’s stronger bullpen (ranked 16th compared to the Cubs’ 28th) and superior recent form tilt the scales slightly in their favor.
Today’s game will see two above-average pitchers face off, but given the Royals’ recent dominance and the Cubs’ offensive struggles, the edge appears to be with Kansas City. Expect another competitive game, with the Royals looking to extend their winning streak and solidify their position in the standings.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)Shota Imanaga is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #28 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)Pete Crow-Armstrong has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .234 figure is considerably lower than his .291 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
- The Chicago Cubs have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Christopher Morel, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Seth Lugo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Seth Lugo’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (54.4% vs. 48.2% last year) figures to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Freddy Fermin – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)Freddy Fermin is penciled in 5th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Kansas City’s 89.4-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in the game: #4 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 35 games (+12.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 98 games (+15.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+165/-220)Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+16.55 Units / 66% ROI)