Cubs vs Cardinals Picks and Betting Trends – 7/14/2024

Chicago Cubs

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs prepare to square off on July 14, 2024, at Busch Stadium, the stakes are high in this National League Central matchup. The Cardinals, with a 50-45 record, are having an above-average season, while the 46-51 Cubs are underperforming. This game marks the fourth in the series between these two divisional rivals.

On the mound for the Cardinals is Miles Mikolas, who holds a 7-7 record with a 4.88 ERA. Despite his subpar ERA, Mikolas’s 4.11 xFIP, a key peripheral indicator, suggests he’s been unlucky this season and could perform better going forward. Mikolas is known for his excellent control, evidenced by his low 4.1% walk rate. This could neutralize the Cubs’ strength in drawing walks, as they rank 5th in the league in that category.

Jameson Taillon will take the ball for the Cubs, sporting a solid 6-4 record and an impressive 2.99 ERA. However, his high 4.18 xFIP indicates he might have been fortunate thus far, potentially setting the stage for regression. Taillon’s flyball tendencies (40% FB rate) might play to his advantage against a Cardinals lineup that ranks 25th in home runs, struggling to generate power.

Offensively, neither team is lighting up the scoreboard. The Cardinals rank 21st in overall offensive production, with their best attribute being a middling 15th-ranked team batting average. However, Alec Burleson has been a bright spot over the last week, hitting .370 with a 1.135 OPS, 3 home runs, and 10 RBIs.

The Cubs’ offense ranks 18th overall, with a lowly 23rd ranking in team batting average and 24th in home runs. Their one offensive strength is speed, ranking 9th in stolen bases. David Bote has been on fire over the last seven games, hitting .667 with a 1.667 OPS.

The bullpens could play a crucial role in this game. The Cardinals boast the 5th-best bullpen according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Cubs’ bullpen has struggled, ranking 28th. This stark contrast could be pivotal in the latter innings.

Betting markets currently favor the Cardinals with a moneyline of -135, implying a 55% chance of victory, while the Cubs sit at +115, implying a 45% chance. Given the projections and underlying statistics, the Cardinals appear to have a slight edge.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jameson Taillon must realize this, because he has used his secondary offerings a lot this year: 59.6% of the time, placing in the 79th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 86.1-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 81.2-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Chicago Cubs have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Christopher Morel).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  Miles Mikolas was firing on all cylinders in his last GS and allowed 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (18.6) may lead us to conclude that Alec Burleson has had positive variance on his side this year with his 28.6 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen profiles as the 5th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 47 games at home (+6.55 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games (+6.75 Units / 18% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+135/-180)
  Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+12.50 Units / 24% ROI)