Cubs vs Braves Insights and Game Breakdown – 9/10/2025

Chicago Cubs

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Atlanta Braves

On September 10, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Chicago Cubs at Truist Park in a crucial matchup. The Braves, currently struggling with a record of 65-80, find themselves well out of contention, while the Cubs are enjoying a strong season at 82-63. In their last encounter, the Braves were handed a tough 6-1 defeat, further highlighting their struggles this season.

Chris Sale, projected to start for the Braves, is having an impressive year with an ERA of 2.38 and ranks as the 10th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. However, he faces a challenge against a Cubs offense that ranks 10th overall in the league, showcasing their ability to score runs. Sale’s recent form includes a solid outing on September 5, where he pitched 7 innings, allowing just 1 earned run and striking out 9 batters.

On the other hand, the Cubs will counter with Jameson Taillon, who has a less favorable season with an ERA of 4.15. Although Taillon has had some decent performances, his overall metrics suggest he may be due for regression. With the Braves’ offense ranking 15th overall but struggling with a .232 batting average (21st in MLB), they will need to capitalize on any opportunities against Taillon.

Given the Cubs’ stronger overall metrics and Sale’s elite standing, the Braves may find it difficult to overcome their recent woes. The projections suggest that the Braves have a high implied team total of 4.42 runs for this matchup, indicating some optimism for their offense. However, with the Cubs’ strong performance and Sale on the mound, this game could tilt in favor of Chicago if they can exploit the Braves’ current struggles.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+155)
  The Chicago Cubs outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest among every team today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+180/-240)
  Nico Hoerner has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (83% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• As a team, Chicago Cubs bats have performed well in regard to hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (between 23° and 34°), ranking 2nd-best in baseball.
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Chris Sale – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-205/+160)
  Chris Sale has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 8.3 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Matt Olson has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 97-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 93.1-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  The Atlanta Braves bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+11.85 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 94 games (+13.55 Units / 13% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+610/-1200)
  Dansby Swanson has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 away games (+10.40 Units / 173% ROI)