Comprehensive Player Prop Odds for Royals vs Twins – May 24, 2025

Kansas City Royals

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to face off against the Kansas City Royals at Target Field on May 24, 2025, both teams are looking to build momentum from their recent performances. The Twins won a close matchup against the Royals yesterday, May 23, with a score of 3-1, showcasing their solid pitching and defense. With a 28-22 record, the Twins are enjoying a strong season, while the Royals sit slightly behind at 28-24, having an above-average year.

On the mound, the Twins will send out Zebby Matthews, who is projected to pitch 5.0 innings. Despite his struggles this season, highlighted by a dismal ERA of 12.00, advanced metrics suggest he has been unlucky, with a much more favorable xFIP of 3.71. This matchup against a Royals offense that ranks 2nd worst in MLB for strikeouts could provide an opportunity for Matthews to find his footing. However, his high walk rate of 17.7% could be a concern against a Royals lineup that is known for being patient at the plate.

On the other side, the Royals will counter with Michael Wacha, who has been solid this season with a 2.86 ERA and a Power Rankings standing of 69th among MLB starters. Wacha’s recent performance, where he allowed just 1 earned run over 5 innings in his last start, indicates he is in good form. While he projects to allow 2.3 earned runs today, his ability to limit walks could be crucial against a Twins offense that ranks 21st in overall production.

With the Twins’ bullpen ranked 3rd in MLB, they have a significant advantage late in the game, which could be a deciding factor in this matchup. The low Game Total of 7.5 runs indicates that oddsmakers expect a tightly contested battle, making this a game worth watching for both fans and bettors alike.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Michael Wacha has recorded 17 outs per outing this year, checking in at the 75th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Extreme groundball bats like Salvador Perez generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Zebby Matthews.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Kansas City Royals have been the 6th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Zebby Matthews – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  With 6 batters who share his handedness in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Zebby Matthews ought to benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Kody Clemens – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Kody Clemens has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins’ bullpen projects as the 3rd-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 40 games (+14.00 Units / 32% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 48 games (+24.20 Units / 44% ROI)
• DaShawn Keirsey – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+125/-160)
  DaShawn Keirsey has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+4.80 Units / 29% ROI)