Comprehensive Player Prop Odds for Padres vs Marlins – August 09, 2024

San Diego Padres

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Miami Marlins

On August 9, 2024, the Miami Marlins will host the San Diego Padres at LoanDepot Park in what marks the first game of a series between these two National League teams. Miami enters with a disappointing record of 43-73 and has been struggling significantly this season, while San Diego boasts a more respectable 64-52, positioning themselves as a competitive force.

The Marlins faced the Cincinnati Reds in their last outing on August 8, suffering a 10-4 loss, which has contributed to their struggles. On the other side, the Padres have experienced success recently, narrowly defeating the Pittsburgh Pirates 7-6 in their last game.

In the pitching matchup, Miami is set to start Edward Cabrera, who has had an up-and-down season, currently holding a 5.96 ERA. Still, his xFIP of 3.72 suggests he has been unlucky this year, leaving room for optimism. Cabrera’s high strikeout rate of 29.9% could be advantageous against a Padres lineup that ranks as the 1st least strikeout-prone team in MLB, making this an intriguing clash of styles.

Meanwhile, San Diego will counter with Martin Perez, who has a 4.96 ERA this season but is considered one of the less effective pitchers in the league according to advanced stats. Perez’s struggles could play into Miami’s hands if they can capitalize on his inconsistencies, especially given that the Marlins offense ranks 29th overall, but has shown some glimmers of hope recently.

Oddsmakers have set Miami’s moneyline at +115 with a corresponding implied win probability of 45%. However, projections indicate the Marlins could have a better chance than anticipated, with young hitters like Jake Burger showing promise, recently amassing impressive stats over the last week. This game carries significant weight for both teams, making it a must-watch for baseball fans and bettors alike.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Martin Perez will average a total of 2.91 earned runs today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• David Peralta – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so David Peralta stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Edward Cabrera’s high usage rate of his secondary pitches (67.8% this year) should work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Posting a .000 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Xavier Edwards finds himself in the 0th percentile for power.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Jake Burger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  In today’s game, Jake Burger is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.5% rate (89th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 23 games (+12.55 Units / 44% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-135)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 50 games (+12.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jake Burger – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+370/-560)
  Jake Burger has hit the Home Runs Over in 12 of his last 34 games (+27.85 Units / 82% ROI)