Comprehensive Player Prop Odds for Orioles vs Giants – August 29, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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San Francisco Giants

On August 29, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the Baltimore Orioles at Oracle Park in an intriguing interleague matchup. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Giants holding a record of 66-68 and the Orioles at 60-74. The Giants are projected to start Robbie Ray, who has had a solid year with a 2.93 ERA, but his underlying metrics suggest he might be due for some regression. Meanwhile, Dean Kremer gets the nod for the Orioles, bringing a 4.19 ERA to the mound, which is slightly above average.

The Giants’ offense has been lackluster, ranking 25th in MLB, and they struggle particularly with batting average, sitting at 28th. Their performance has not been bolstered by a powerful lineup, as their home run total ranks 21st in the league. In contrast, while the Orioles’ offense is also below par at 20th, they have a decent home run ranking at 13th, suggesting they can capitalize on mistakes.

Robbie Ray is projected to pitch an average of 5.7 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs, while Kremer is expected to pitch 5.4 innings with a slightly higher projection of 2.9 earned runs. Both pitchers face lineups that have struggled this season, but Ray’s recent form, coupled with his excellent ERA, gives the Giants a slight edge.

Given the Giants’ current status as betting favorites with a moneyline of -155, the projections favor them to outperform their implied team total of 4.11 runs. With the Orioles having a tough time on the road and a bullpen ranked 28th in MLB, the Giants may find opportunities to capitalize and secure a much-needed victory in this series opener.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  In his previous outing, Dean Kremer allowed a colossal 5 earned runs.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Alex Jackson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Alex Jackson has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.2-mph average to last season’s 93.3-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Ryan Mountcastle has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  Robbie Ray is an extreme flyball pitcher (40% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #26 HR venue in the majors in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Patrick Bailey – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (12.2) provides evidence that Patrick Bailey has had some very poor luck this year with his 3.3 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Robbie Ray – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Projected catcher Patrick Bailey grades out as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 64 games at home (+12.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 83 games (+17.30 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Jackson Holliday has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+7.30 Units / 19% ROI)