Comprehensive Player Prop Odds for Cubs vs Pirates – August 26, 2024

Chicago Cubs

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Pittsburgh Pirates

On August 26, 2024, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Chicago Cubs at PNC Park in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams are vying for a better record, with the Pirates sitting at 62-68 and the Cubs at 65-66. While neither team is in contention for a division title, they are battling for improved standings.

Mitch Keller, projected to start for the Pirates, has had a solid season with an 11-7 record and an ERA of 3.76. However, he has struggled with allowing hits, projected to give up 5.9 hits and 1.5 walks on average today. Keller’s ability to limit walks could play a crucial role against the Cubs, who rank 5th in MLB in walks drawn. This matchup could favor Keller, as his strong control might mitigate the Cubs’ patience at the plate.

On the other side, Jameson Taillon will take the mound for the Cubs. With an 8-8 record and a 3.77 ERA, Taillon has been inconsistent, but he faces a Pirates offense that ranks 28th in MLB. The Pirates have struggled significantly this season, with a batting average that also ranks 26th. The projections suggest that Taillon could exploit this weakness, especially given that the Pirates are the 5th highest team in strikeouts.

Interestingly, the projections favor the Pirates slightly, suggesting they could score around 4.97 runs, compared to the Cubs’ projected 5.10 runs. The game is expected to be tight, with a total set at 8.5 runs. The betting markets reflect this close matchup, as both teams’ moneylines are set at -110. With the Pirates’ need to improve and Keller’s potential to outshine Taillon, this game could offer an intriguing dynamic for bettors looking for value.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jameson Taillon must realize this, because he has relied on his secondary pitches a lot this year: 60.3% of the time, checking in at the 78th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  In the past week, Cody Bellinger’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.7% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Chicago’s 92.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs ranks them as the #6 group of hitters in MLB this year by this standard.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Mitch Keller’s 2410-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 79th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Rowdy Tellez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Rowdy Tellez has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Oneil Cruz in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line -1.5 (+180)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 55 of their last 94 games (+15.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 66 of their last 125 games (+6.50 Units / 5% ROI)
• Rowdy Tellez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+510/-900)
  Rowdy Tellez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games at home (+8.00 Units / 160% ROI)