Chicago Cubs
San Francisco Giants
(-120/+100)-110
As the San Francisco Giants prepare to host the Chicago Cubs on August 28, 2025, the stakes are high for both clubs, albeit for different reasons. The Giants currently sit at 65-68, having had an average season, while the Cubs are enjoying a strong campaign with a record of 76-57. The Giants are not expected to contend for a playoff spot, but they have a chance to play spoiler against a Cubs team that is fighting for postseason positioning.
In their last matchup, the Cubs defeated the Giants, continuing to showcase their offensive prowess. This season, the Cubs rank 9th in MLB in terms of offensive performance, while the Giants find themselves at a dismal 25th. The Giants’ struggles at the plate are evident, as they rank 29th in team batting average and 29th in stolen bases, pointing to a lack of offensive firepower.
On the mound, the Giants will send Logan Webb, ranked as the 7th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. Webb has had a solid season with a 3.13 ERA and a 12-9 record, but his peripherals suggest he may have been a bit lucky this year. He projects to pitch around 6.2 innings today, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs, but he will face a Cubs lineup that has been difficult to strike out, which could neutralize his high strikeout rate.
The Cubs will counter with Shota Imanaga, who has been above average this season with a 3.03 ERA and an 8-6 record. Imanaga’s performance has been bolstered by a solid offense, and he projects to allow 2.5 earned runs today.
With the Game Total set at a low 7.0 runs, bettors might find value in considering the Cubs’ strong offensive capabilities against a Giants team that has struggled to put runs on the board. The projections suggest a close contest, but the Giants will need to capitalize on their home-field advantage to pull off the upset.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)Shota Imanaga is an extreme flyball pitcher (44.5% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #27 HR venue in MLB in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)Nico Hoerner has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (89% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls many of his flyballs (37% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Logan Webb – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Logan Webb has used his change-up 7.1% less often this season (23.8%) than he did last season (30.9%).Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Rafael Devers has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.5-mph to 95.7-mph in the last week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Logan Webb – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Projected catcher Patrick Bailey grades out as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 60 games at home (+12.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 66 of their last 129 games (+16.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+660/-1300)Michael Busch has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+11.20 Units / 112% ROI)