Comprehensive Player Prop Odds for Braves vs Royals – July 28, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Atlanta Braves on July 28, 2025, both teams find themselves in the middle of disappointing seasons. The Royals sit at 52-54, showcasing an average performance, while the Braves are struggling with a 44-60 record, marking them as one of the worst teams in the league. This game kicks off a new series, adding a layer of intrigue as both teams look to turn their fortunes around.

In their last outing, the Braves faced a tough defeat, continuing a trend that has haunted them this season. The Royals, on the other hand, are projected to start Rich Hill, who has only pitched one game this year, recording a 0-1 win/loss record and an impressive ERA of 1.80. However, his underlying stats suggest he may have been fortunate, as his xFIP is significantly higher at 5.68. The Royals’ offense, ranked 25th in MLB, has struggled to produce runs, particularly in the power department where they rank 28th in home runs.

Spencer Strider will take the mound for the Braves, presenting a stark contrast to Hill. Strider, ranked 24th among MLB starters, has a solid ERA of 3.72 but has experienced his own difficulties, holding a 4-8 record. He’s known for his strikeouts, but interestingly, he faces a Royals lineup that has the 2nd least strikeouts in MLB. This matchup could favor Kansas City if they can capitalize on Strider’s walk rate, as they have the least walks in the league.

With the game total set at a high 9.5 runs, the Braves are favored with a moneyline of -165, reflecting their stronger starting pitcher. However, given the Royals’ potential to exploit Strider’s weaknesses, this game could be closer than the odds suggest. Fans and bettors alike will be closely watching how this interleague matchup unfolds at Kauffman Stadium.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Strider – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Spencer Strider’s 94.9-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 79th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Marcell Ozuna has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (94% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-155)
  The 5th-best projected offense on the slate in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the Atlanta Braves.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Rich Hill will “start” for Kansas City Royals in today’s game but will be treated as more of an opener and may not stay in the game more than a couple frames.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Jonathan India – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Jonathan India’s average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 88.2-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 80.8-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 7.5% Barrel% of the Kansas City Royals ranks them as the #26 group of hitters in Major League Baseball this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 64 of their last 95 games (+31.00 Units / 28% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 27 games (+6.00 Units / 20% ROI)
• Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+150/-195)
  Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+11.85 Units / 35% ROI)