Toronto Blue Jays
Detroit Tigers
(-120/+100)-140
On July 24, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Comerica Park in what marks the beginning of a crucial series between two teams enjoying successful seasons. The Tigers currently hold a record of 60-43, while the Blue Jays are slightly ahead at 60-42. With both teams vying for playoff positioning, this matchup carries significant weight.
The Tigers are projected to start Reese Olson, a right-handed pitcher ranked 40th in MLB according to advanced stats, while the Blue Jays will counter with lefty Eric Lauer, who has struggled this season and is considered one of the weaker pitchers in the league. Olson has an impressive ERA of 2.71, although his 3.77 xFIP suggests he may have benefited from some good fortune. He has started 12 games this year, compiling a 4-3 record, and is expected to pitch around 5.2 innings today.
In contrast, Lauer’s 2.80 ERA also looks solid, but like Olson, his 3.82 xFIP indicates he may not maintain this level of performance. Lauer projects to pitch just 4.7 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs on average, which is concerning given his matchup against a Tigers offense that ranks 6th best in MLB.
Detroit’s lineup has been on fire, and their best hitter has recorded 7 hits in the last week, boasting a .318 batting average and an .830 OPS. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays’ best hitter has also been productive, hitting .444 with a 1.212 OPS over four games.
With the Tigers having a higher implied team total of 4.45 runs for today, they appear to have the edge, especially considering their strong home-field advantage and the effectiveness of their bullpen ranked 6th in MLB. This matchup promises to be an exciting one, with plenty at stake for both teams.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Eric Lauer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)Eric Lauer has a reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 7 opposite-handed hitters in today’s game.Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Nathan Lukes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)Typically, hitters like Nathan Lukes who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Reese Olson.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Bo Bichette – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Today, Bo Bichette is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 39.1% rate (97th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Reese Olson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)Ranking in the 88th percentile, Reese Olson put up a 13% Swinging Strike percentage this year.Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
- Colt Keith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)Colt Keith is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- It may be best to expect weaker performance for the Detroit Tigers offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 5th-luckiest offense in the game this year.Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 44 games at home (+13.73 Units / 27% ROI)
- Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (+120)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 72 games (+16.44 Units / 18% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)Gleyber Torres has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+9.75 Units / 47% ROI)