Comprehensive Player Prop Odds for Angels vs Twins – April 25, 2025

Los Angeles Angels

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to face off against the Los Angeles Angels on April 25, 2025, at Target Field, both teams are struggling to find their footing this season. The Twins hold a record of 9-16, while the Angels sit at 12-12. The Twins are coming off a disappointing stretch, including a recent no-hitter against them, highlighting their difficulties at the plate and contributing to an underwhelming offensive ranking of 26th in MLB.

Projected starting pitcher Pablo Lopez aims to turn things around for the Twins. Despite having an ERA of 1.62, which is excellent, advanced statistics suggest he has been a bit lucky this season, as indicated by a 3.27 xFIP. Lopez’s projection indicates he could pitch 4.8 innings while allowing 1.7 earned runs, which bodes well considering the Angels’ offense ranks 24th overall and 26th in batting average. His ability to induce ground balls at a 53% rate will be crucial against the Angels’ powerful lineup, which has collectively hit 36 home runs this year, ranking 4th in MLB.

On the other side, Kyle Hendricks, projected to start for the Angels, has struggled with a 4.50 ERA and is considered among the worst pitchers in the league according to advanced metrics. He is projected to pitch an average of 5.3 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs while giving up a concerning 5.5 hits per game. With the Angels’ struggles, the matchup may favor the Twins, especially with their bullpen ranked 10th, compared to the Angels’ 5th-best ranking.

With the Twins currently favored with a moneyline of -190, the projections support their potential for a win, particularly given the Angels’ offensive inconsistencies and Hendricks’ recent performances. This game marks an opportunity for Minnesota to capitalize on its pitching advantage and improve its standing in a tough season.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Kyle Hendricks – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Kyle Hendricks’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.9 mph this year (85.6 mph) below where it was last season (87.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Mike Trout – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Extreme flyball bats like Mike Trout usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Pablo Lopez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels’ bullpen projects as the 5th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Pablo Lopez – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Pablo Lopez to be limited in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 78 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Edouard Julien – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Edouard Julien is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Harrison Bader hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 10th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• Pablo Lopez – Over/Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+145/-190)
  Pablo Lopez has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.50 Units / 27% ROI)