St. Louis Cardinals
Washington Nationals
(-110/-110)-110
The Washington Nationals and St. Louis Cardinals will face off in the third game of their series on July 7, 2024, at Nationals Park. After splitting the first two games, Washington aims to continue their momentum from yesterday’s resounding 14-6 victory. This National League matchup pits a below-average Nationals team (42-47) against the above-average Cardinals (46-42).
Washington will send left-hander DJ Herz to the mound, who despite being ranked #138 out of roughly 350 starters, has shown flashes of potential. Herz boasts a 4.67 ERA this season; however, his 3.19 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and might improve going forward. In his last start on July 2, Herz pitched a strong six innings, allowing just one earned run and striking out ten. His high-flyball tendencies could play to his advantage against a power-devoid Cardinals lineup, which ranks 25th in MLB in home runs. Despite these encouraging signs, Herz’s projections for today are not all rosy—he is expected to pitch just 4.5 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs.
On the other side, the Cardinals will counter with right-hander Kyle Gibson. Gibson, holding a 3.88 ERA this season, appears better on the surface but has a 4.82 xERA, indicating that regression might be due. Gibson is more of a ground-ball pitcher, which could benefit the Nationals, who rank 29th in team home runs but will be less affected by his pitching style. Gibson’s projections are middling, with an expected line of 5.7 innings pitched and 3.0 earned runs allowed.
Offensively, Washington’s lineup is driven by CJ Abrams, who has been their standout performer with a .280 batting average and 14 home runs. Recently, Luis Garcia has also been on a tear, hitting .429 with three home runs over the last week. The Cardinals’ offense, ranked 19th overall, will look to Willson Contreras, who has been their best hitter over the past seven days, boasting a 1.103 OPS.
Betting markets project this to be a close game, with the Nationals having an implied win probability of 49% and the Cardinals at 51%. However, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, also forecasts a tight matchup, giving Washington a 49% chance and St. Louis a 51% chance of winning. As both teams vie for crucial wins, expect an engaging contest with a high projected total of around 9.0 runs.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Kyle Gibson – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)Tallying 17.4 outs per GS this year on average, Kyle Gibson places him the 83rd percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)Nolan Gorman has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (55% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Nolan Gorman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.5% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Washington Nationals Insights
- DJ Herz – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+135/-170)The St. Louis Cardinals have 6 bats in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage against DJ Herz in this matchup.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Lane Thomas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Lane Thomas has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.1-mph to 92.8-mph in the past 14 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- DJ Herz – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+135/-170)Projected catcher Riley Adams grades out as a horrible pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-165)The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 47 of their last 79 games (+13.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jesse Winker – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 34 games (+10.90 Units / 28% ROI)