Check the Rankings and Game Forecast: Royals vs Orioles Analysis – 10/1/2024

Kansas City Royals

@

Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles gear up to host the Kansas City Royals on October 1, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, tensions are high in this crucial American League Wild Card matchup. With the Orioles coming off a 6-2 victory over the Minnesota Twins and the Royals defeating the Atlanta Braves 4-2, both teams enter this game with momentum on their side.

The Orioles, ranked 5th in offense and boasting the 2nd most home runs in the league, will rely on the consistency of Corbin Burnes on the mound. Burnes, who ranks 25th among MLB starting pitchers, brings an impressive 15-9 record and an excellent 2.92 ERA. Despite his strong numbers, Burnes’s 3.55 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit fortunate this season. However, his low walk rate could be challenged by a Royals team known for patience at the plate.

On the other side, the Royals will counter with Cole Ragans, an elite pitcher ranked 15th in MLB. Ragans, with a 3.14 ERA, has been in fine form, evidenced by his recent performance of six shutout innings against the Braves. Despite his high ranking, Ragans is projected to struggle with control, as seen in his expected high walk rate.

Offensively, Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr. leads the way with a .332 batting average and a .977 OPS, showcasing his ability to impact games. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson provides a power presence with a .281 average and a .893 OPS.

The Orioles enter as favorites, with a moneyline of -160, suggesting a 60% implied win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Orioles a slightly lower 56% chance to win, indicating a tighter contest than the betting odds suggest. With both teams looking to advance in the postseason, this matchup promises to be a thrilling battle on the diamond.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Cole Ragans – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Cole Ragans has a large reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 6 opposite-handed hitters in this game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Maikel Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (72% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals’ bullpen profiles as the 9th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Corbin Burnes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Over his previous 3 GS, Corbin Burnes has seen a sizeable drop off in his fastball velocity: from 94.7 mph over the whole season to 93.5 mph recently.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Colton Cowser has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.5-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 90.5-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Today, Anthony Santander is at a disadvantage facing the league’s deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.7% rate (98th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 83 of their last 153 games (+19.80 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 29 games (+10.95 Units / 34% ROI)
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+190/-255)
  Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+22.80 Units / 29% ROI)