Check the Rankings and Game Forecast: Reds vs Cardinals Analysis – 9/12/2024

Cincinnati Reds

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St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals host the Cincinnati Reds on September 12, 2024, in a crucial National League Central matchup. The Cardinals currently sit with a record of 73-72, while the Reds are struggling at 71-76, reflecting their below-average performance this season. In their most recent clash on September 11, the Cardinals edged the Reds 2-1, which marked a narrow victory that showcased their pitching strength.

Sonny Gray, projected to start for St. Louis, ranks as the 22nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, boasting a solid ERA of 3.84 and a win/loss record of 12-9 this year. His last outing was impressive, where he went 7 innings, allowing just 1 earned run and striking out 7 batters. However, he does struggle with allowing hits and walks, which could be a concern against a Reds lineup that has shown flashes of power.

On the other hand, Jakob Junis is slated to take the mound for Cincinnati. Despite a commendable ERA of 2.82, his underlying metrics suggest he may not be as effective moving forward. The projections indicate he could struggle against a Cardinals offense that, while ranked 20th in the league, still has the potential to capitalize on pitchers who allow too many hits and walks.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Cardinals are favored with a projected win probability of 58%. The Cardinals offense, led by Paul Goldschmidt, has been average this season, but recent performances indicate they can break through against weaker pitching. With a game total set at a low 7.5 runs, this matchup could hinge on the effectiveness of Gray and the ability of the Cardinals to exploit Junis’s weaknesses.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Jakob Junis – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Given his large platoon split, Jakob Junis will hold the advantage being matched up with 6 hitters in the projected offense of the same handedness in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Jake Fraley has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (58% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen projects as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (42.8% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line +1.5 (-170)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 75 of their last 129 games (+15.35 Units / 9% ROI)
• Jonathan India – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  Jonathan India has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 43 games (+19.40 Units / 41% ROI)