Check the Rankings and Game Forecast: Nationals vs Braves Analysis – 5/15/2025

Washington Nationals

@

Atlanta Braves

On May 15, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Washington Nationals at Truist Park in what is the fourth game of their series. The Braves are currently sitting at 21-22, having had an average season so far, while the Nationals are struggling at 18-26, marking a terrible start. In their previous matchup, the Braves managed a solid win, which could provide them with a much-needed boost.

The Braves are projected to start AJ Smith-Shawver, who has a Win/Loss record of 2-2 this year and an impressive ERA of 2.76. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit lucky, as his xFIP stands at 3.79, indicating potential regression. Smith-Shawver’s ability to strike out 5.2 batters on average today could play a crucial role against a Nationals offense that ranks 20th in the league.

On the other side, Trevor Williams will take the mound for the Nationals. Williams has a rough ERA of 5.88 and a Win/Loss record of 2-4. His xFIP of 4.02 suggests he might have been somewhat unlucky, but his projections are not encouraging, as he is expected to allow 3.1 earned runs over 5.0 innings.

Offensively, the Braves rank 16th overall, while the Nationals are slightly behind at 20th. The Braves’ hitters have been more productive recently, with their best player boasting a .667 batting average over the last week. Meanwhile, the Nationals’ top hitter has only managed a .417 average in the same span.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs and Atlanta favored with a moneyline of -210, the projections indicate a high team total of 4.99 runs for the Braves, suggesting they could capitalize on their home-field advantage against a struggling Nationals squad.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  Trevor Williams is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.5% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #24 HR venue among all parks in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Extreme groundball batters like Josh Bell generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like AJ Smith-Shawver.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+170)
  The 3rd-worst projected offense on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the Washington Nationals.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• AJ Smith-Shawver – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  AJ Smith-Shawver has a reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 6 opposite-handed batters in this matchup.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Ozzie Albies has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (79% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Atlanta’s 90-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in baseball: #7 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.80 Units / 57% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+5.37 Units / 16% ROI)
• Austin Riley – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-105/-125)
  Austin Riley has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+10.05 Units / 63% ROI)