Check the Rankings and Game Forecast: Mets vs Dodgers Analysis – 6/5/2025

New York Mets

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Los Angeles Dodgers

On June 5, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the New York Mets in what promises to be an exciting matchup between two of the National League’s top teams. Both squads are enjoying strong seasons, with the Dodgers sitting at 37-25 and the Mets at 39-23. The Dodgers are coming off a disappointing loss to the Mets just one day prior, where they fell 6-1, while the Mets celebrated their victory with confidence.

The Dodgers will send Landon Knack to the mound, a right-hander with a 3-2 record and a 4.58 ERA this season. Although Knack ranks as the 213th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, he has shown signs of improvement, evidenced by his last outing on May 31, where he pitched six solid innings, allowing just one earned run. However, his projections indicate he may struggle today, as he’s expected to pitch only 4.6 innings, allowing about 2.9 earned runs.

In contrast, the Mets will counter with David Peterson, a left-handed pitcher who has been performing well this season with a 4-2 record and an impressive 2.69 ERA. While Peterson is considered an average pitcher by the projections, he has been effective lately, also pitching six innings with one earned run in his last start.

Offensively, the Dodgers boast the 1st best offense in MLB, leading the league in both batting average and home runs. Their powerful lineup will be looking to bounce back after a tough game, while the Mets, ranked 8th offensively, will aim to capitalize on any mistakes from Knack. With a high Game Total of 9.5 runs set for this matchup, expectations are high for an explosive game at Dodger Stadium.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  David Peterson’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.3 mph this season (90.6 mph) below where it was last season (91.9 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Starling Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Extreme flyball batters like Starling Marte usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Landon Knack.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  Landon Knack is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #3 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Andy Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Andy Pages is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Will Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Will Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+8.60 Units / 41% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 8 games (+8.25 Units / 88% ROI)
• Andy Pages – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Andy Pages has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+11.25 Units / 51% ROI)