Check the Rankings and Game Forecast: Mets vs Astros Analysis – 3/29/2025

New York Mets

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros and New York Mets prepare for their matchup on March 29, 2025, both teams find themselves in a tightly contested early season, each holding a record of 1-1. This Interleague series has already showcased some close competition, hinting that today’s game could be another nail-biter. Notably, the Mets are hoping to bounce back after a disappointing performance in their last outing, while the Astros are looking to build momentum after a solid effort.

On the mound, Spencer Arrighetti will take the ball for the Astros. Ranked as the 177th best starting pitcher in MLB, he has struggled to establish dominance. While his projections indicate he’ll pitch approximately 4.6 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs, his expected performance suggests a tendency to surrender hits, with an average of 4.1 projected. This could be concerning for Houston, especially against a lineup like the Mets.

Opposing him will be Griffin Canning, who ranks among the lowest in MLB. The projections show he is expected to pitch a mere 4.9 innings and allow 2.9 earned runs, with an average of 5.3 hits going through his defense. Given both pitchers’ struggles, this matchup could lead to a high-scoring affair, especially with the game total set at an average of 8.5 runs.

From a betting perspective, the Astros hold a slightly higher implied team total of 4.45 runs. However, given the overall struggles of both pitchers, Mets fans could be optimistic about their team’s chances to exploit this mismatch. As the series continues, both clubs are keen to turn their early season narratives around, with today’s showdown proving crucial for setting the tone in this matchup.

New York Mets Insights

• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Mark Vientos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 9th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• Spencer Arrighetti – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-180)
  Recording 92.2 adjusted pitches per GS since the start of last season on average, Spencer Arrighetti checks in at the 82nd percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yordan Alvarez as the 3rd-best hitter in MLB when assessing his batting average skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 86 of their last 152 games (+17.35 Units / 10% ROI)
• New York Mets – Moneyline (+100)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 95 of their last 169 games (+14.95 Units / 7% ROI)