Check the Rankings and Game Forecast: Mariners vs Tigers Analysis – 8/14/2024

Seattle Mariners

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on August 14, 2024, both teams are looking to establish momentum in this critical matchup. The Tigers recently triumphed over the Mariners, dominating in a surprising 15-1 victory, which marked a significant statement game for a squad that has struggled this season with a record of 57-63. Meanwhile, the Mariners, who sit at 63-57, are having an above-average season but must shake off that lopsided loss to regain their form.

On the mound, the Tigers will send out Beau Brieske, ranked 106th among MLB starting pitchers. While he has had an inconsistent season, his 4.57 ERA suggests he has faced some misfortune. Brieske projects to pitch 1.2 innings with an average of 0.5 earned runs allowed. However, his strikeout rate of 1.3 batters per game raises concerns about his ability to get outs efficiently. On the other hand, the Mariners will counter with Bryan Woo, who has been impressive with a 2.27 ERA and a 5-1 record this season. Woo’s projection of 5.1 innings pitched with 2.2 earned runs allowed puts him in a favorable position to lead his team back to winning ways.

Offensively, both teams have struggled, with the Tigers ranking 28th in MLB for overall offense and the Mariners at 26th. Yet, recent performances highlight individual strengths; Tigers’ Matt Vierling has stood out as a key contributor, while Cal Raleigh continues to excel for the Mariners, recently racking up 9 RBIs in his last week of play.

Betting enthusiasts should note that while the sportsbooks favor the Mariners with a moneyline of -140, projections indicate a closer contest, suggesting potential value in betting on the Tigers, who have a moneyline of +120. The projected game total sits at 8.0 runs, hinting at a competitive matchup ahead.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryan Woo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)
  Bryan Woo has gone to his slider 7% more often this year (15.9%) than he did last season (8.9%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Josh Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Josh Rojas is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  The Seattle Mariners bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Beau Brieske – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Among all starting pitchers, Beau Brieske’s fastball spin rate of 2512 rpm ranks in the 95th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Zach McKinstry is apt to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Zach McKinstry hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 2nd-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-140)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 42 of their last 70 games (+10.90 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 38 away games (+10.85 Units / 26% ROI)
• Justin Turner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Justin Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+10.85 Units / 59% ROI)